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Square Crypto Funds Bitcoin Developer to Improve Mining Pool Software

5 years 9 months ago

Square Crypto’s latest grant will fund a Bitcoin developer’s work on software that could improve how mining collectives pool hash power.

Pseudonymous developer Fi3 (@piccioneLibero2 on Twitter, or “free pigeon”) will receive an undisclosed sum to work on an implementation of Stratum V2, the next iteration of a Bitcoin mining protocol software developed by Braiins. 

“Square Crypto is excited to support the development of a high quality open-source implementation of Stratum v2,” Square Crypto lead Steve Lee said to CoinDesk. “This software benefits miners by maximizing their revenue and providing more freedom and security.”

‘Personal freedom’ to pursue Bitcoin development

Related: Traders Can Now Bet on ‘Bitcoin $300K’ as Options Keep Pace With Rising Price

“I wanted to work on something related to Bitcoin,” Fi3 told CoinDesk. The Bitcoin developer has previous experience working with Bitcoin’s mining industry via a collaboration with Italian mining company Bitminer Factory.  Fi3 is proficient in the Rust programming language, which will be used to code the upgrade, so once they saw the opportunity they “caught it.” 

“I also like the personal freedom that this kind of grant gives you,” Fi3 continued.

Read more: Square Crypto’s 20th Grant Will Support Bitcoin Design, User Experience

The co-author of the proposal, Jan Kvapil, will begin work on the implementation in February, Fi3 said.

Stratum V2: Giving Bitcoin mining a boost

A mining pool is a collective of miners – from big industrial players to hobbyists farming in their basements – who combine their hash power to increase their collective chance of mining a block.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Crosses $41.9K as Ether Futures Interest Grows 85% So Far in 2021

The Stratum software coordinates this pooled mining. The new edition, V2, will patch a handful of security flaws present in its 2012 predecessor, while improving connection speeds between miners in the pool. It will also give individual Bitcoin miners a say in which transactions they want to include in the blocks that the pools mine, allowing individual miners a bit more freedom in the process.

Read more: New Software Fix Provides Bitcoin Miners Increased Security

Fi3’s goal is to develop and create a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (or BIP, code that alters some aspect of the Bitcoin network or protocol) that paves a clear path to activating the upgrade. Stratum V2 has been in the works for some time, but the grant will fund the changes that should finally push the project to fruition.

Toward this end they will consult with Braiins co-founder Jan Čapek and former Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corallo, who now works full-time for Square Crypto as a developer on open-source projects.

Fi3 said a Bitcoin Core pull request for implementing Stratum V2 could be ready in 6 months; this would include a BIP that outlines activation. After this point, “a well-tested implementation [of Stratum V2] should be ready” in a year, Fi3 said.

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Bitcoin Is ‘Less Risky the Higher It Goes,’ Says Investor Bill Miller on CNBC

5 years 9 months ago

Mutual fund titan Bill Miller is talking bitcoin again.

“One of the things that’s interesting about bitcoin is that it gets less risky the higher it goes,” Miller told CNBC Friday. “That’s the opposite of what happens with most stocks.”

Miller continued to describe bitcoin as “a supply-and-demand story” with roughly 900 bitcoins created each day and a swarm of retail and institutional investors scooping up enormous chunks of available supply.

Related: Traders Can Now Bet on ‘Bitcoin $300K’ as Options Keep Pace With Rising Price

Some of those large investments have come from firms like MicroStrategy, which has scooped up over 70,000 BTC with plans to buy more, and London-based asset manager Ruffer Investment, which dumped $740 million into bitcoin toward the end of 2020.

Payment companies like Square and PayPal are also funneling retail capital into bitcoin. In Q3 2020, for example, Square reported a record $1 billion in bitcoin revenue via its Cash App mobile wallet. PayPal, after announcing its plan to support bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in October, promptly removed its waitlist for the service less than a month later, citing overwhelming demand.

See also: Veteran Investor Bill Miller Says Every Major Investment Bank Will Own Bitcoin or Something Like It

“For those people who are waiting for the pullback, they got it in the first quarter. You could have bought bitcoin at $4,000 in the first quarter,” Miller noted, referencing bitcoin’s nearly 50% intraday crash in March 2020.

But amid bitcoin’s more than 300% rally in 2020, extended by an additional 40% gain already in 2021, Miller said the price of these returns is the asset’s volatility.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Crosses $41.9K as Ether Futures Interest Grows 85% So Far in 2021

“You have to expect that it’s going to be very, very volatile,” Miller told CNBC. “If you can’t take the volatility, you probably shouldn’t own it. But its volatility is the price you pay for its performance.”

Still, Miller said earlier this week he thinks markets are underpricing bitcoin’s value proposition as a potential inflation hedge, calling it cash’s “rat poison,” a term Warren Buffett famously applied to bitcoin with an entirely opposite connotation.

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Blockchain Bites: Bitcoin’s Rich List, Coinbase’s Latest Acquisition

5 years 9 months ago

Ripple tried to settle with the SEC before the watchdog’s XRP-related lawsuit. The “bitcoin rich list” has more names than ever. Grayscale reports an uptick in interest from pension funds and Coinbase makes an acquisition to beef up its institutional bitcoin offerings. It has been a huge news day, so buckle up.

Top shelf

Frontrunning action
Ripple tried to settle charges of conducting $1.3 billion worth of unregistered securities transactions when selling XRP to exchanges and the public, before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued in December, CEO Brad Garlinghouse said Wednesday. In a Twitter thread, Garlinghouse addressed what he described as five “key questions” about the SEC’s argument, though he warned that he was limited in what he could say because the case is ongoing. Several exchanges have moved to delist or stop XRP trading.

Pensions or bust
Grayscale is reporting increased “participation” in its flagship bitcoin and crypto investment products from institutions, pensions and endowments, not just hedge funds. Newly named CEO Michael Sonnenshein told Bloomberg, “The sizes of allocations they are making are growing rapidly as well,” with some $27.5 billion in total assets under management. (Grayscale, like CoinDesk, is owned by Digital Currency Group.)

Related: Money Reimagined: Bitcoin’s Road to Gold

Rich list grows
The number of addresses holding over 1,000 bitcoin stands at a record high of 2,334, indicating that large bitcoin holders have been accumulating bitcoin during the market run-up. This comes after a brief depression in the total number of bitcoin “whales” in December. “The dip and renewed increase at the end of December shows relatively little interest in profit-taking on the part of these large holders, even though almost all holdings are currently in profit,” according to CoinDesk Research’s quarterly review report.

First acquisition of the year
Coinbase has acquired trade execution startup Routefire to bolster the exchange’s suite of institutional products ahead of a planned IPO. The terms of the deal were not disclosed, though Routefire was a small, seven-employee firm based in San Francisco. Coinbase has experienced intermittent outages during the run-up in bitcoin’s price above $40,000.

Going public?
Cryptocurrency exchange Bakkt, which is majority-owned by Intercontinental Exchange, is in advanced talks to go public via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), Bloomberg reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The deal, if it’s concluded, would value the combined company at more than $2 billion, the report said. A deal could be announced as soon as next week.

Quick bites
  • 1,981 BTC: Finland will auction bitcoin from 2016 enforcement actions. (CoinDesk)
  • > 65,000: FinCEN logged well over 65,000 submissions related to its proposed “unhosted” wallet rule during its abnormally short, and potentially illegal, public comment period. (CoinDesk)
  • AMENDED COMPLAINT: A senior district judge in Utah has acknowledged he made a “mistake” when granting Overstock’s motion to dismiss a lawsuit over its digital dividend issued in 2019. (CoinDesk)
  • WHITE-KNUCKLE RALLY: Did bitcoin just experience its best week since 2017? (Bloomberg)
  • DOWN TURN: Economy sees job loss in December for the first time in eight months as surging coronavirus takes toll. (CNBC)
  • BTC’S BIGGEST FANS are hedge fund baby boomers (Bloomberg Opinion)
  • MICRO STRATEGY? Read the company’s 2020 Shareholder letter. (Blog)
Market intel

What Joe Biden’s $3 trillion stimulus package means for bitcoin
President-elect Joe Biden is reportedly considering a two-pronged stimulus effort in the form of $2,000 checks for Americans and a tax and infrastructure spending package worth $3 trillion, the first sign of what many market analysts predict will be a tide of fiscal stimulus under a new U.S. presidential administration. With increased spending, comes increased inflation projections – which many crypto insiders see as a boon for bitcoin’s programmatic, deflationary attributes.

Related: First Mover: It Might Be Getting ‘Silly’ as Bitcoin Passes $39K, $40K, $41K

Q4
If the 2020 Q1 was the quarter of market turmoil, Q2 the bitcoin halving and Q3 the explosion of stablecoins and decentralized finance applications, Q4 was the quarter of institutional FOMO for bitcoin and of Ethereum launching the first phase of its ambitious migration to a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain. The latest CoinDesk Quarterly Review looks at the performance of bitcoin and ether compared to macro assets and other crypto assets, and at their progress, milestones and value drivers over the past three months. Download the free report.

At stake

Yesterday, Facebook made the unprecedented decision to ban a sitting president, Donald Trump, from its services for his role in inciting the revolt that damaged the U.S. Capitol. Facebook and other social media firms have had four years to discuss how to balance publishing information in the public interest (because President Trump said it) when much of it is not factual.

Streaming service Twitch, e-commerce platform Shopify and others also banned the president, at least until he leaves office on Jan. 20. The president’s Twitter feed, meanwhile, was suspended for 12 hours, Jan. 6-7.

Many opponents have long called for Trump to be booted from his online bully pulpits, where he often commands a large audience (88.7 million people follow @realDonaldTrump, his personal Twitter account). Explaining the decision, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the “current context is now fundamentally different, involving use of our platform to incite violent insurrection against a democratically elected government.”

Some in the crypto world see it differently.

“I think what is happening right now is absolutely ridiculous. One big circus show setting us up for the last act – total control of our thoughts and actions. Twitter and Facebook are mass scams. No matter what your political view, the amount of heavy-handed censorship is, let’s say, suspicious,” Josh Petty, founder and CEO of the alternative social media site Twetch, told Blockchain Bites over email.

It’s old hat to call crypto a libertarian insurrectionary movement, though there are some key areas where the two ideologies align – primarily in championing individualism and all the “classically liberal” rights associated with that. This means freedom of ownership, freedom of speech and freedom to “exit” from the crowd.

Instead of erecting laws to protect these freedoms, blockchains create cryptographic proofs to ensure certain conditions are always met. These are monetary assurances – like Bitcoin’s hard-capped supply, Ethereum’s infinite programmability or Solana’s blitzkrieg settlement speed – as well as cultural, like the idea that finance and speech should be uncensorable.

“People really value censorship resistance, both for themselves and others, to the degree where it can seem irrational to bystanders,” pseudonymous crypto researcher Hasu wrote in November, in a blog post titled, “Exploring Bitcoin’s core values and why we defend them.”

Blockchains, by connecting people directly, can assure certain freedoms that are often occluded when intermediaries get involved. If you believe that everyone has the right to a platform online, then you’d probably disagree with Facebook’s decision to ban Trump – regardless of the circumstances.

“Social media companies have no direct role in a democracy,” Petty said. “Social media companies, despite using the word ‘social’ to describe them, are private enterprises serving customers and their self-interests.”

Indeed, these bans could be seen as fatuous branding exercises. Trump has less than two weeks in office before a new president is sworn in, and many prominent figures in Congress and elsewhere are calling for his immediate removal.

While the hardline, anti-censorship approach has neat answers for complicated questions, in practice it often runs into just as many sticky situations.

Today, following news reports and a Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) investigation that found “white supremacists and neo-fascists” are using the streaming platform DLive, owned by Justin Sun’s Tron, the blockchain-based platform will take steps to suspend and ban streamers found in violation of its community rules.

“The DLive team actively are taking actions regarding streamers who are found to be part of or participants in the incident at the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on [Jan. 6] including but not limited to account suspension, removal of past broadcasts, freezing their earnings and abilities to cash out. The donation and paid subscriptions will be refunded to the accounts from which they originated,” a DLive press release reads.

Then again, DLive’s primary selling point was not censorship resistance but its rewards program.

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Cryptocurrency Miner Hive Blockchain Passes $1B Market Value

5 years 9 months ago

Publicly traded cryptocurrency mining company Hive Blockchain (HIVE) has passed $1 billion in market value as its shares continue to surge amid bitcoin’s parabolic rally.

  • The Vancouver-based company has a current market value of $1.17 billion at last check with 345.7 million shares outstanding.
  • Hive first crossed the 10-digit mark in early November 2017 shortly before the cryptocurrency market peaked a month later. For most of the past three years, Hive’s market value has stayed below $200 million.
  • Hive shares rallied over 2,500% in 2020 and have added an additional nearly 40% gain so far in January, currently trading around $3.32. In 2017, shares peaked just above $6.75.
  • To date in 2021, bitcoin has gained over 40% after reaching nearly $42,000 Friday morning.
  • Coinciding with its soaring market value, Hive has focused expanded its mining operations with the purchase of over 3,000 new mining machines in 2020, with nearly half of that number purchased and deployed in November 2020 alone.
  • Hive competitors Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and Marathon Patent Group (MARA) both also recently hit the $1 billion market value in late December and early January respectively, per CoinDesk’s prior reporting.
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Bitcoin’s Market Value Now Exceeds That of Facebook

5 years 9 months ago

The explosive surge in the rise of the price of bitcoin has propelled the market value of the leading cryptocurrency past that of social media giant Facebook.

  • With a market value at this writing of $761.5 billion, bitcoin is now more valuable than all but six publicly traded companies, sitting between Tesla at $805.3 billion and Facebook at $752.4 billion.
  • After rising more than 300% in 2020, the price of bitcoin is still climbing at an astonishing rate, having gained more than 40% in the last eight days. Bitcoin is currently at $40,758.95, up about 4% in the last 24 hours. It closed 2020 at $29,111.63.
  • During the past several days, bitcoin has also risen up the ranks of the world’s most valuable currencies, overtaking the Russian ruble and the Thai baht, to sit just above the baht and below the Swiss franc.
  • For one pair of identical twins at least, bitcoin’s overtaking Facebook undoubtedly has a more personal significance: Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini co-founder and bitcoin billionaire Cameron Winklevoss, who unsuccessfully sued Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg for allegedly having stolen the idea for the social networking site from him and his brother, surely felt good being able to tweet the following:
See also: Why Is Bitcoin Going Up, and Will It Crash Soon? What’s Next as Price Doubles to $40K Related Stories
CoinDesk

Ethereum 2.0 Explained in 4 Easy Metrics

5 years 9 months ago

With the launch of every new blockchain comes a new block explorer website to understand. 

Block explorer sites offer real-time updates on network activity. Normally, they feature information on blocks, transactions and fees. On Ethereum 2.0, the block explorers depict a very different array of metrics involving epochs, slots and attestations. 

But even for those familiar with the usual Ethereum explorers such as Etherscan, Etherchain and Blockchair, the new sites for tracking Eth 2.0 activity may be difficult to decipher. This guide is meant to be a resource for understanding their new terminology and gleaning useful insights about the activity of Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network. 

Related: Valid Points: New Year, New Price Gains For ETH

For anyone unfamiliar with blockchain explorers in general, this guide will go over the basic details of reading an Ethereum 2.0 blockchain explorer. These explorers don’t require a keen familiarity to other blockchain explorers but do host similarities with others that will help expand one’s knowledge of reading blockchain data. 

See also: Ethereum 2.0 Beacon Chain Goes Live

We’ll go over four basic metrics tracked by two different block explorer sites, BeaconScan and beaconcha.in. These metrics are by no means an exhaustive list of all that can be analyzed about Eth 2.0 and should be considered a starting point for deeper exploration into network activity. 

Epochs progressed

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Ethereum 2.0 progresses in epochs, not blocks. An epoch is a bundle of up to 32 blocks that actors on the network (called validators) propose and attest to over a period lasting roughly 6.4 minutes. An epoch, along with all the blocks of which it is composed, is only considered finalized after the progression of two more epochs after it. 

See also: A Day in the Life of an Ethereum 2.0 Validator

Related: What Is Proof-of-Stake?

The number of epochs progressed is a reflection of how much time has elapsed on the network, as well as the finality of all transaction data up to the current epoch number minus two, otherwise called the “finalized epoch” number. (See image above.)

This metric can be a useful indicator of any network abnormalities. Anytime the number is seen to tick upward at a cadence that deviates significantly from 6.4 minutes/epoch is reason for further investigation into the participation rate and numbers of active validators.

Number of active validators

The number of active validators represents the number of computers, also called nodes, that have a 32 ETH stake on Eth 2.0 and that have passed the activation queue for entry into the network. As of Jan. 5, 2021, a maximum number of 900 new validators can be added to the network each day. 

A total of 262,144 validators is needed at minimum for Eth 2.0 to advance to its next phase of development in which 64 mini-blockchains, called “shards,” will be spawned. At the current rate of 900 new validators being added to the network each day, phase 1 will occur sometime in late August or early September of this year. 

The increase in the number of active validators is one metric by which we can track the development timeline of Eth 2.0. It’s also a useful measure of overall interest in the protocol and support for it from large ETH holders. 

Network participation rate

The network participation rate is a useful indicator of Eth 2.0 network health. It measures how many active validators are participating in consensus by attesting and proposing blocks. Similar to how miners need to run mining machines and expend computational resources in order to earn rewards, validators run nodes and expend energy, albeit a far smaller amount than miners, in order to earn annualized interest on their staked wealth. 

A participation rate of 99% suggests the vast majority of validators on Eth 2.0 are doing their job and securing the network. Significant declines in this number would suggest active validators are shutting their nodes down and disconnecting from Eth 2.0.

Read more: Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract Secures Enough Funds to Launch

This could be as a result of a major power outage in a certain part of the world or of validators lacking sufficient financial incentive to keep their machines running. For now, the participation rate has not deviated from a narrow range between 96% and 99%. However, its change over time will give clues as to how engaged Eth 2.0 validators are with earning rewards on the network. 

Average validator income

Last but not least, one of the most intuitive and interesting metrics to track on Ethereum 2.0 is how much validators are earning on average, daily. Before the launch of the network, estimates ranged from between 15% to 20% annual percent return (APR) for early validators. As of Jan. 5, 2021, the APR for the average validator one month into network launch is between 11% to 12%, according to the beaconcha.in calculator.

On block explorer BeaconScan, validator rewards are broken down by day. For the past two weeks, validators have been earning roughly 0.008 ETH/day, which is valued at around $8.86/day at time of writing. Initially, the daily average had reached as high as 0.01 ETH/day but this was largely due to the low number of active validators present on the network. The reward system of Eth 2.0 is dynamically structured so that an increasing number of Eth 2.0 validators will trigger lower validator returns and vice versa. 

Taking a look at the lowest daily average recorded thus far, which is 0.005 ETH/day on Dec. 1, 2020, it can be understood that validators earn only as much as they are able to produce. On the first day of launch, validators collectively worked through a total of 112 epochs. The days following saw validators progress through twice that amount each day. 

Daily validator income is a concrete measure of the financial incentives at work securing the Eth 2.0 network. Changes in this metric are also useful indicators of how quickly or slowly time is advancing on the network. 

Going beyond block explorers

Block explorers provide a wealth of information about the hour-by-hour and minute-by-minute activity of the Ethereum 2.0 network. They’re also free to use and available to the public. 

Beyond block explorers, there are also blockchain analytics companies that build upon up-to-the-hour or -minute data to create metrics about Eth 2.0 spanning longer time horizons. 

For deeper exploration into Eth 2.0 metrics, explore these sites: CryptoQuant, Dune Analytics and Glassnode. 

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Kyrgyzstan Has Proposed Its First Regulatory Framework for Crypto

5 years 9 months ago

The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan has published draft legislation that would legally define cryptocurrency and how it may be used in the Central Asian nation.

With the proposed legislation, the central bank is following the call of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to regulate cryptocurrencies and prevent related money laundering and terrorism financing risks, according to an explanatory note.

With Kyrgyz citizens becoming increasingly interested in cryptocurrencies, and the technology gaining traction in electronic commerce worldwide, it’s important to mitigate the risks associated with crypto, the National Bank wrote.

Related: Crypto Derivatives Exchange BitMEX Says All Users Are Now Verified

The regulator announced the proposed legislation on Dec. 31, 2020, publishing a package of drafts detailing why the new bill is needed and how it fits into Kyrgyzstan’s existing regulation.

In one draft, cryptocurrency is defined as a digital good that represents value, is stored and used electronically and is neither a legal mean of payment nor a document representing any property rights. Virtual assets, however, are a different kind of asset and can represent property rights, another draft says, without going into detail.

Under the proposal, the property rights of cryptocurrency owners would be protected by the courts. Any companies and individual entrepreneurs, if they are not registered crypto operators or miners, should not accept crypto as payment for goods or services, as well as in a form of investment or savings deposit. Entities would not be able to offer crypto brokerage or issue securities based on cryptocurrencies.

Licensing and tax

Crypto exchanges, in turn, must register with and be licensed by the National Bank, and must keep a record of transactions they have facilitated – data that must be provided to the National Bank upon request. In the case of an “emergency,” the regulator can request that exchanges take specific measures for “risk diminishing.”

Related: FiCAS’ Actively Managed Crypto ETP Gets Green Light for European Expansion

The taxation of crypto-related businesses should be carried out the same way as the foreign exchange brokerages, the National Bank wrote.

The regulator also says participants of the cryptocurrency market must make transactions with crypto “in good faith and on their own risk,” learn how the cryptocurrencies of their choice function and abide by Kyrgyzstan’s laws.

See also: UNICEF Explores Blockchain to Improve Internet for ‘Every School’ in Kyrgyzstan

The regulator further underscores that it has no responsibility for the situation when cryptocurrencies lose their value and won’t compensate such losses to crypto investors.

The draft bills have yet to be introduced to the Kyrgyzstan’s parliament for discussion.

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First Mover: It Might Be Getting ‘Silly’ as Bitcoin Passes $39K, $40K, $41K

5 years 9 months ago

Bitcoin’s momentum showed few signs of slowing on Friday as prices pushed to a new all-time high after blowing through $40,000 for the first time. 

In traditional markets, Asian and European shares rose and U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open as investors bet a dismal jobs report expected early Friday from the Labor Department on the December employment situation would strengthen the case for additional economic stimulus. Gold weakened 1.1% to $1,893 an ounce. 

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes jumped Thursday to 1.07%, the highest since March, as traders focused on the potential for faster inflation under a U.S. government controlled by President-elect Joe Biden’s Democratic party, according to the Wall Street Journal.    

Related: Traders Can Now Bet on ‘Bitcoin $300K’ as Options Keep Pace With Rising Price

Read More: Over $41,000: Bitcoin Continues to Forge New Highs

Market moves

Bitcoin has climbed more than 40% in the first eight days of 2021 – after a quadrupling in 2020 and doubling in 2019 – and some analysts are turning wary.  

“We are very much in speculative bubble territory now, and while I don’t think it’s done it’s becoming increasingly likely that it’s going to get messy,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst for the London-based foreign-exchange broker Oanda, wrote in an email. “I previously said I wouldn’t be surprised to see $50,000 before the end of the month and I’m now thinking that was too conservative. The last $10,000 move only took four days. It’s getting silly now.”

First Mover reached out to investors, analysts, executives and one finance professor for their views on whether a correction might be in the future. TL;DR: Yes. Here’s what they said:

  • Joe DiPasquale, CEO, BitBull Capital, a cryptocurrency-focused hedge fund. He says bitcoin “has been and remains extremely volatile.” As recently as Monday, he noted, after prices had climbed to a new all-time high, they tumbled almost $7,000. “What causes this is that people can use lots of leverage, so they can easily get washed out.” He sees a correction as possible, though there appear to be plenty of interested buyers around $28,000, so that might level might function like a price support barring any major news that might send prices crashing. What might that be? A forceful move by regulators to impose stiff anti-money-laundering rules on merchants, raising the threat of prosecution or forfeiture if bitcoin can be traced back to illicit proceeds. That might scare off new buyers. 
  • Gavin Smith, CEO of the digital-asset firm Panxora. According to Smith, there hasn’t been a single year since 2013 when prices have not fallen at least 25% from a high point reached earlier in that year. “Before that it would move so much up and down that you can’t really draw any analysis.” He said he wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin prices rise to $70,000 or $80,000, nor if a setback of 40% were to materialize. Medium term, he’s bullish: “Over a three-year period, this is a great asset.” Over the long term, there’s a risk that technological developments could overtake bitcoin. “Even with quantum computing, there’s nothing on the horizon that indicates that could happen,” he says, “but it’s always dangerous to completely ignore the risk.” 
  • Mike Venuto, co-portfolio manager of the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing exchange-traded fund, which invests in blockchain-related stocks. Will bitcoin crash? “People are going to ask this because the last time we had a rally like this, it did crash.” He sees bitcoin prices rallying two to three times from their current level before falling back to about where they are now. That would imply a two-thirds retracement from that hypothetically new all-time high. “What’ll cause a crash more likely is overexuberance on the upside. I don’t think we’re there yet.” He says he estimates bitcoin’s fundamental value, based on the current size of the network, to be “somewhere between $40,000 and $50,000,” though that could increase over time. 
  • Denis Vinokourov, head of research for the cryptocurrency prime broker Bequant. “There will be swings and, yes, the swings will be wild,” he says. “You have a lot of retail flow that tends to panic.” He sees prices going up, in the long term, at least partly based on the bullish expectations of big Wall Street firms. “Can it go to $4,000? Yes.” One potential trigger for a rapid sell-off could be any actions brought by authorities against the company behind tether (USDT), a privately issued, dollar-linked digital token known as a “stablecoin” that has become a key source of liquidity in digital-asset markets. New York State prosecutors are currently battling Tether in court due to its finances.
  • James Angel, Georgetown University finance professor. “The history of financial markets is the history of bubbles, where investors get carried away with enthusiasm and they bid the prices of certain assets to levels far above their fundamental values,” Angel says. He notes that authorities could move to crimp the bitcoin rally if they start to get worried that it’s becoming a threat. “Almost everybody who tries to start their own money does so in competition with a national currency, and it usually gets shoved aside by regulators.” 
  • Sui Chung, CEO of CF Benchmarks, a cryptocurrency provider. “Bitcoin passing the $40,000 milestone shows the market still sees upside in the cryptocurrency market. While we’re currently seeing an unequivocal expression in the market’s bullish sentiment, a correction could well be on the horizon. But this is a natural part of market mechanics. While it may dampen near-term enthusiasm, it will ensure future price rises remain grounded.”
  • Guy Hirsch, managing director for the U.S. at the trading platform eToro. “There is likely to be profit-taking along the way, causing temporary dips (which are. of course. magnified with bitcoin relative to traditional assets) but, given the extraordinary amounts of adoption by institutions, it would be a surprise if bitcoin dropped below $20,000 any time soon – though I would caveat this to say that we are monitoring proposed regulatory measures and the posture of the new administration towards crypto to assess if they would have an adverse impact on institutional adoption of crypto assets.”

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Crosses $41.9K as Ether Futures Interest Grows 85% So Far in 2021

– Bradley Keoun and Muyao Shen

Read More: Why Is Bitcoin Going Up, and Will It Crash Soon? What’s Next as Price Doubles to $40K

Bitcoin watch

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s Democratic party narrowly triumphed in the state of Georgia’s special Senate elections earlier this week, wresting control of the upper legislative chamber from outgoing President Donald Trump’s Republicans. With the lower chamber also under Democratic control, Biden and party leaders could have more room to implement policies.

Analysts at UBS Bank say the unified government houses could smooth the path to more fiscal stimulus. According to an Axios report, Biden is considering a two-pronged stimulus effort in the form of $2,000 checks for Americans and a tax and infrastructure spending package worth $3 trillion. The new fiscal stimulus is expected to boost inflation, weaken the U.S. dollar and bring more buyers for scare assets such as bitcoin and gold.

Alex Melikhov, CEO and founder of Equilibrium and the EOSDT stablecoin, told CoinDesk that Biden’s stimulus would inject more liquidity into markets and likely fuel further bitcoin price rises.

The leading cryptocurrency is already in a strong bull market, courtesy of the inflation-boosting measures adopted by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government over the past 10 months to counter the coronavirus-induced slowdown. These measures have pushed institutions to seek investments that offer a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin prices have risen from $10,000 to record highs above $41,000 in the past four months, with public-listed companies such as MicroStrategy buying bitcoin to preserve the value of their treasury reserves. That trend could gather pace, as predicted by JPMorgan, with Biden’s additional fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve’s continued easing.

“The Biden stimulus may add an extra jolt to bitcoin’s price, but nothing more than pushing along a barreling freight train,” Jehan Chu, managing partner at Hong Kong-based crypto investment firm Kenetic Capital, told CoinDesk.

– Omkar Godbole

Read More: Why Joe Biden’s $3T Stimulus Package Could Add Fuel to Bitcoin’s Rally

What’s hot

65K comments and counting: Crypto industry fights ‘arbitrary’ Treasury rule (CoinDesk)

Bitcoin “rich list” rebounds to all-time high (CoinDesk) 

XRP climbs back up crypto rankings with near 50% rise (CoinDesk) 

Grayscale, provider of bitcoin trust, promotes Sonnenshein to CEO, plans to double staff in 2021, sees interest from pension funds and endowments (CoinDesk, Bloomberg) 

BitMEX exchange says all users are now verified, months after U.S. prosecutors, regulators bring charges against principals over unregistered trading (CoinDesk) 

Analogs The latest on the economy and traditional finance

December jobs report from U.S. Labor Department is projected to show the unemployment rate increased for the first time in eight months; economists see nonfarm payrolls growing by 50,000; report from Labor Department is due at 8:30 NY time (13:30 UTC) (Bloomberg). 

Blackstone’s Byron Wien predicts yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes will climb to 2%, from just over 1% now, as Federal Reserve maintains accommodative monetary policies (Bloomberg)  

U.S. Treasury Department launches $25B emergency rental-assistance program (Treasury Department)

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CoinDesk

Internet Shutdowns Cost India $2.8B in 2020: Report

5 years 9 months ago

A new report shows India’s regional internet shutdowns in 2020 cost its economy approximately $2.8 billion, making it the country that suffered the most damage from internet manipulation by a government last year.

Internet shutdowns, or the intentional disruptions of internet access or electronic communications targeting a specific location or population, are often used by governments to control unrest but often lead to human rights abuses, from silencing the press and obstructing peaceful protests to cutting off access to information. 

Intermittent shutdowns across India, combined with the blackout in the disputed Kashmir region that extended over months, made up 8,927 hours and affected over 10 million people, the report said. It also shows India and Myanmar are responsible for the longest shutdowns for the second consecutive year.

Related: Blockchain Developers Are Focused on the Wrong Problem

The “Global Cost of Internet Shutdowns in 2020” report, published by Virtual Provider Network (VPN) review platform Top10VPN, compiled instances of internet manipulation across the globe through the year and found that major shutdowns took place in 21 countries including Belarus, Yemen and Myanmar, contributing to a loss of over $4 billion in total – with India’s losses counting for about three-fourths of the total global cost. 

Internet disruptions in these countries took a number of forms: total blackouts, social media shutdowns and internet throttling (when internet service providers limit users’ bandwidth or internet speeds), the report noted. 

Read More: Belarus is Back Online, With Lessons About Censorship Resistance 

“Not only are [internet disruptions] an act of economic self-sabotage, they also violate citizens’ freedom of expression, the right to information and the right to peaceful assembly,” Samuel Woodhams, digital rights researcher at Top10VPN and one of the authors of the report, told CoinDesk via an email.

Related: India Mulls Imposing 18% Tax on Bitcoin Transactions

The report indicated that in countries such as Myanmar and Yemen, internet disruptions may have prevented citizens, particularly in rural areas, from receiving important information and updates about the spread of COVID-19. 

“By disrupting access to the internet, authorities denied citizens the right to access vital information about the virus … and may have created conditions in which the virus was able to spread unabated,” Woodhams said. 

However, the global economic cost of internet shutdowns in 2020 was down by 50% from 2019, when the annual analysis by Top10VPN showed a loss of $8 billion. For instance, 263 days of disruptions in Iraq cost the nation $2.3 billion in 2019 compared to India, which lost $2.8 billion in over 8,000 days of disruptions.

Woodhams explained this is due to a disparity in the scale of interference. 

“The Iraq and Sudan shutdowns in 2019 were so expensive because they were nationwide, rather than localized. In India, all of the restrictions were targeting regions, not the whole country, so the impact on the economy was less as only a proportion of the population experienced restrictions,” Woodhams said. 

Between 2019 and 2020, India was responsible for the longest recorded internet shutdown in a democracy as the Kashmir region remained in the dark for at least seven months. When the internet was eventually restored, users only had access to 2G speeds, an example of severe internet throttling by a government over an extended time.  

“While there is often little transparency regarding who ordered the disruptions, it is normally always authorities forcing companies to slow their speeds,” Woodhams said. 

Read More: In India, a Clash of Digital Innovation and Internet Censorship

He added that the research team at Top10VPN kept up to date with internet shutdowns throughout the year and gathered data from a range of sources including nongovernmental internet monitoring organization Netblocks, which the researchers also used to estimate the cost, as well as an internet shutdown tracker by India’s Software Freedom Law Center.    

The objective of reports compiling the costs of  globe-spanning records of internet shutdowns is to make authorities around the world think twice about imposing these deliberate digital disruptions, Woodhams said. 

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CoinDesk

Why Is Bitcoin Going Up, and Will It Crash Soon? What’s Next as Price Doubles to $40K

5 years 9 months ago

Bitcoin’s prices reached all-time highs above $40,000 less than a month after breaking $20,000 for the first time. Since the start of the most recent rally, ostensibly begun in October, its value has increased fourfold. 

So for pros and newbies alike, or if you want to be the cryptocurrency expert at your next Zoom party, it’s natural to ask: Why are prices going up, and will bitcoin crash? 

Bitcoin (BTC) was just invented 12 years ago as a new type of electronic payment system, built atop an Internet-based computing network that no single person, company or government could control. The reality is that the cryptocurrency’s trading history is so short, with methods for valuing the asset still largely untested, that nobody really knows for sure what it should be worth now, or in the future.

Related: Bitcoin Goes Institutional, Ethereum Spreads Its Wings: CoinDesk Q4 2020 Review

That hasn’t stopped digital-asset investors or even Wall Street analysts from putting out price forecasts ranging from $50,000 to $400,000 or beyond.

Based on CoinDesk’s reporting, here are a few key reasons why bitcoin prices have recently rallied:

  • Demand from institutional buyers, many of them eyeing bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. The cryptocurrency is seen as a hedge against inflation because, under the network’s original programming, only 21 million bitcoins can ever be created; so there’s a contrast with central banks like the Federal Reserve that can decide based on a committee vote to print more money. Big asset managers including Tudor Investment and Guggenheim Partners have announced bitcoin purchases or wagered on prices using futures contracts on the Chicago-based CME exchange. Even old-line Wall Street firms such as Morgan Stanley have weighed in with bullish pronouncements. Analysts for JPMorgan Chase, the biggest U.S. bank, recently predicted a price of $146,000 over the long term.
  • The U.S. dollar’s decline in foreign exchange markets. The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the dollar’s value against major world currencies like the euro and Japanese yen, slid 6.8% in 2020 and is down again in 2021. That’s key for bitcoin, since the cryptocurrency’s price is mostly denominated in U.S. dollars. Possible reasons for the greenback’s decline include the Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion-plus of money printing over the past year, which is roughly three-quarters of the entire amount previously created in the U.S. central bank’s 108-year history. Images of protestors storming the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday probably didn’t burnish America’s leadership role on the global stage, and now many economists are predicting that big spending plans under a Democratic-controlled government would lead to new stimulus bills and potentially outsize government budget deficits for years to come. Much of those extra costs could be financed through additional Fed money printing.
  • Retail purchases. Many individuals are speculating on bitcoin prices, and it’s become increasingly easy to buy bitcoin, with big services like PayPal enabling purchases last year. Analysts for the digital-asset firm ByteTree noted this week that blockchain data appear to show a high concentration of bitcoin purchases in the amount of $600 – the same amount as the American stimulus checks sent out in the latest U.S. coronavirus emergency aid package.

All this may have led to a tremendous rally over the past few months. But could bitcoin prices crash? Of course they could, several analysts told CoinDesk. 

The cryptocurrency’s price is notoriously volatile, and substantial and unexpected price swings aren’t uncommon. Below is a sampling of comments from cryptocurrency analysts and other financial experts on how a pullback might look, and what might cause it.

  • Bitcoin “has been and remains extremely volatile,” said Joe DiPasquale, CEO, BitBull Capital, a cryptocurrency-focused hedge fund. As recently as Monday, he noted, after prices had climbed to a new all-time high, they tumbled almost $7,000. “What causes this is that people can use lots of leverage, so they can easily get washed out.” He sees a correction as possible, though there appear to be plenty of interested buyers around $28,000, so that level might function like a price support.
  • There hasn’t been a single year since 2013 when prices have not fallen at least 25% from a high point reached earlier in that year, said Gavin Smith, CEO of the digital-asset firm Panxora. He said he wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin prices rise to $70,000 or $80,000, nor a setback of 40%. Medium term, he’s bullish: “Over a three-year period, this is a great asset.” But over the long term, there’s a risk that technological developments could overtake bitcoin. “Even with quantum computing, there’s nothing on the horizon that indicates that could happen,” he says, “but it’s always dangerous to completely ignore the risk.”
  • Bitcoin prices could rally two to three times from their current level before falling back to about where they are now, said Mike Venuto, co-portfolio manager of the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing exchange-traded fund, which invests in blockchain-related stocks. That would imply a retracement of more than two-thirds from that hypothetically new all-time high. “What’ll cause a crash more likely is overexuberance on the upside. I don’t think we’re there yet.”
  • “There will be swings, and yes, the swings will be wild,” said Denis Vinokourov, head of research for the cryptocurrency prime broker Bequant. “You have a lot of retail flow that tends to panic.” He sees prices going up, in the long term, at least partly based on the bullish expectations of big Wall Street firms. “Can it go to $4,000? Yes.” One potential trigger for a rapid sell-off could be any actions brought by authorities against tether (USDT), a privately issued, dollar-linked digital token known as a “stablecoin” that has become a key source of liquidity in digital-asset markets. New York State prosecutors are currently battling Tether in court due to its finances.
  • “The history of financial markets is the history of bubbles,” said James Angel, Georgetown University finance professor. He notes that authorities could move to crimp the bitcoin rally if they start to get worried that it’s becoming a threat. “Almost everybody who tries to start their own money does so in competition with a national currency, and it usually gets shoved aside by regulators.”
  • “While we’re currently seeing an unequivocal expression in the market’s bullish sentiment, a correction could well be on the horizon,” said Sui Chung, CEO of CF Benchmarks, a cryptocurrency provider. “This is a natural part of market mechanics. While it may dampen near-term enthusiasm, it will ensure future price rises remain grounded.”
  • “There is likely to be profit taking along the way, causing temporary dips,” said Guy Hirsch, managing director for the U.S. at the trading platform eToro. “But given the extraordinary amounts of adoption by institutions, it would be a surprise if bitcoin dropped below $20,000 any time soon.”

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Reaches $40.3K While DeFi Value Locked Inflates to Over $22B

So for the Zoom party, you can tell them: Yes, according to the experts, a crash is probably coming, but that’s typical for bitcoin, and if history is any guide, prices will probably recover. 

Just don’t tell them when.

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CoinDesk

Ripple ‘Tried’ to Settle With SEC Ahead of XRP Suit, CEO Says

5 years 9 months ago

Ripple tried to settle charges of conducting unregistered securities transactions with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before the federal regulator sued it in December, CEO Brad Garlinghouse said Wednesday.

In a Twitter thread, Garlinghouse addressed what he described as five “key questions” about the SEC’s suit against Ripple, though he warned that he was limited in what he could say as the case is ongoing.

“Can’t get into specifics, but know we tried – and will continue to try [with] the new administration – to resolve this,” Garlinghouse said about why Ripple didn’t settle with the SEC.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Reaches $40.3K While DeFi Value Locked Inflates to Over $22B

The SEC alleged that Ripple, Garlinghouse and former CEO and current Chairman Chris Larsen has sold $1.3 billion worth of XRP in unregistered securities sales since 2013, in an “ongoing” violation of the law. The federal regulator claims that these raises were used to fund its operations.

The charges came fresh off the SEC’s victories against Telegram and Kik, two messaging platforms that the regulator alleged violated securities laws due to their initial coin offerings, or token presales, ahead of launching the gram and kin tokens, respectively. (Telegram killed the gram project before it went live.)

Similarities can be drawn to Block.one, a company that did successfully settle charges with the SEC in 2019. 

Block.one, the firm behind the EOS project, paid a fine in a settlement that gave the current form of the EOS token the regulatory green-light to continue trading. 

Related: XRP Climbs Back up Crypto Rankings With Near 50% Rise

Garlinghouse, along with Ripple General Counsel Stuart Alderoty, said the San Francisco-based firm’s response to the SEC suit is on its way. Ripple has publicly decried the SEC charges, and has an initial hearing scheduled for later next month.

Speaking to other parts of the SEC’s complaint, Garlinghouse said Ripple “provided some customers, especially first movers, [with] incentives to use [its On-Demand Liquidity product],” which he said was lawful. 

He did not answer one of his own posted questions about whether Ripple paid exchanges to list XRP, only saying “Ripple has no control over where XRP is listed.” 

Several exchanges delisted or halted trading of XRP after the suit was revealed.

Kraken, one of the few major U.S. platforms that still lists XRP, said it “is reviewing the matter.”

Nathan DiCamillo contributed reporting.

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CoinDesk

Bitcoin Goes Institutional, Ethereum Spreads Its Wings: CoinDesk Q4 2020 Review

5 years 9 months ago

If the 2020 Q1 was the quarter of market turmoil, Q2 the bitcoin halving and Q3 the explosion of stablecoins and decentralized finance applications, Q4 was the quarter of institutional FOMO for bitcoin and of Ethereum launching the first phase of its ambitious migration to a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain.

The latest CoinDesk Quarterly Review looks at the data and timelines behind these two strong narratives, and what they mean for asset prices.

Bitcoin goes institutional

While the 2017 bitcoin rally was largely driven by retail frenzy, the 2020 rally was driven mainly by institutions. The accelerating rhythm of large institutional investors publicly talking about and investing in bitcoin as a portfolio asset has not only lent validation to bitcoin’s role in portfolios, it has also attracted the attention of other investors. This self-reinforcing loop is likely to continue into 2021, especially given the mounting uncertainty around currencies and inflation.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Reaches $40.3K While DeFi Value Locked Inflates to Over $22B

Bitcoin’s strong rally in the last few days of December crowned an already strong year and produced an annual performance of 300%, way ahead of most macro assets, although behind ETH’s spectacular 470%.

One metric that hints at growing institutional involvement is the number of addresses that hold large balances. The number of addresses with over 1000 BTC, known as “whales,” is over 30% higher than at the end of 2017, the height of the last crypto bull run, indicating the growing presence of deeper pockets in the market.

Another indicator that institutional involvement in the bitcoin markets is growing is the volumes on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), an institution-focused derivatives exchange that offers bitcoin futures and options. The CME’s bitcoin futures open interest in U.S. dollars grew almost 300% over the quarter to become the largest in the industry (as of Dec. 30), having started the quarter in fifth position.

Ethereum spreads its wings

The Ethereum ecosystem saw strong progress in market infrastructure growth in the fourth quarter, and the long-awaited launch on Dec. 1 of Ethereum 2.0 was a major step on the way to migrating the ecosystem to a proof-of-stake blockchain.

Related: ‘Bitcoin Rich List’ Rebounds to Hit All-Time High

Now that launch is successfully out of the way and Ethereum 2.0 developers are focusing their efforts on the task of onboarding several tens of thousands more validators onto the network. The goal is to have a minimum number of 262,144 validators securing Eth 2.0 before advancing to the next phase of development, phase 1. As of Wednesday, Jan. 6, 20% of this number have been onboarded.

Historically, peaks in the number of active accounts on Ethereum have coincided with market tops, but the latest price surge that tipped ETH past $1,100 for the first time since January 2018 was not mirrored by a surge in the number of active accounts. The number of active accounts has been trending upwards but is still roughly 33% lower than its peak of 714,225 reached back in 2018, when ETH price was nearing $1,400. This indicates the latest ETH price bull run may be fueled more by market speculation and less by a growth in real user activity and adoption.

Not all Ethereum transactions involve transfers of ETH. They could involve transfers of ERC-20 and ERC-721 tokens, which are crypto assets created for unique applications and use cases on top of Ethereum. What’s more, not all Ethereum transactions are initiated by users. Some are initiated automatically by a smart contract, which is the code dictating the functionality behind all decentralized applications (dapps). This year, the total amount of ETH transferred by smart contracts as opposed to users doubled from its previous all-time high reached in 2016. This is a bullish indicator of Ethereum’s growing use case as a dapp platform rather than as a network for transfers of value.

For more charts and insights on developments in crypto asset markets in Q4 2020, download our free report here.

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CoinDesk

SoFi to Go Public Through SPAC Merger at $8.6B Valuation

5 years 9 months ago

Lending fintech Social Finance (SoFi) said Thursday it will go public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company.

  • The online lending platform, which has a digital asset trading subsidiary, agreed to merge with venture capital backer Chamath Palihapitiya’s Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp V IPOE.N.
  • The deal values SoFi at $8.65 billion, according to a press release.
  • SoFi recently secured conditional approval for a national bank charter from U.S. banking regulators.

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CoinDesk

Market Wrap: Bitcoin Reaches $40.3K While DeFi Value Locked Inflates to Over $22B

5 years 9 months ago

Large trading volumes in the bitcoin spot market are helping push prices upward to a fresh record high. Ethereum-based DeFi value locked is also setting records, with rising crypto values playing a part.

  • Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $39,143 as of 21:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Gaining 8.4% over the previous 24 hours.
  • Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $36,382-$40,324 (CoinDesk 20)
  • BTC above its 10-hour and 50-hour moving average on the hourly chart, a bullish signal for market technicians.

The price of bitcoin continues to make incredible gains Thursday, an upward trajectory that helped the world’s oldest cryptocurrency hit a record $40,324. Prices north of the new, big figure were short-lived, however. A sell-off quickly saw nearly $3,000 shaved off the price in a matter of 30 minutes, though it has since rebounded to $39,143 as of press time. 

“Bitcoin’s move upwards is fueled by institutions and institutional analysis pointing to price targets called for by firms including $146,000 by JPMorgan and $400,000 by Guggenheim,” said Guy Hirsch, managing director for U.S. at multi-asset brokerage eToro. 

Related: Ripple ‘Tried’ to Settle With SEC Ahead of XRP Suit, CEO Says

“There is likely to be some profit-taking, causing intermediate dips in price, but all signs point to a continued move higher in the short to medium term,” he added.

Read More: Bitcoin Tops $40K for First Time, Doubling in Less Than a Month

“It’s been a wild first week of the year for bitcoin, already up and down 15%-20% moves a few times during this period,” said Cindy Leow, investment manager at multi-strategy trading firm 256 Capital.

“This move is a hybrid of 2013 and 2017 post-halving price action, where 2013 saw a practically vertical move built up over many months while the late 2016 rally saw many more regular corrections that panned out over months,” Leow added. “The overall market sentiment seems to be a mix between disbelief and euphoria, which leads us to think that the retail peak is not in yet and there may still be room to go for this trend to develop.”

Related: Bitcoin Goes Institutional, Ethereum Spreads Its Wings: CoinDesk Q4 2020 Review

“We remain cautiously bullish, noting that funding rates across most crypto-assets are now persistently high, as are futures premiums and call volume,” Leow concluded.

Read More: CME Now Biggest Bitcoin Futures Exchange as Institutional Interest Rises

Funding premiums on major derivatives venues remain high, signaling traders are willing to pay quite a bit for leveraged positions.

“From here I have an initial target of $50,000 in mind and would love to say that we hit it in three to six months, but I think the power behind the market just now means we have a chance of hitting it in a few weeks,” said Chris Thomas, head of digital asset at Swissquote Bank. 

If spot bitcoin volumes can continue on a tear, Thomas’ prediction might not be out of the question. Daily volumes on the eight exchanges tracked by the CoinDesk 20 have been over $5 billion for six days in a row including Thursday’s $6.6 billion tally as of press time.

“After $50,000, I think there will be some very realistic institutional sellers who have to take profits as they will likely have doubled their money at that point,” Thomas said. “It would be prudent to do so and a crash to sub-$20,000, which is not out of the question, could result in difficult discussions with their bosses.“

Nevertheless, 2021 is off to a good start for the cryptocurrency market. “It is early January and bitcoin has broken through $40,000,” noted Denis Vinokourov, head of research at crypto brokerage Bequant.

Value of crypto locked in DeFi is up while investors withdraw

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was up Thursday, trading around $1,245 and climbing 3.8% in 24 hours as of 21:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET).

The total value locked in decentralized finance, or DeFi, crossed the $22 billion mark for the first time Thursday. Crypto investors “lock” assets in DeFi smart contracts to gain a “yield” or percentage return in exchange for providing the liquidity.

However, the amount of ether locked in DeFi is dipping, to below 6.8 million ETH as of press time.

In addition, the amount of bitcoin locked has fallen precipitously, down to 30,456, representing a 53% drop from the all-time high of 64,993 BTC locked in October.

Where investors are moving all this crypto to from the DeFi sphere is anyone’s guess, but some degree of profit-taking is likely happening in what has been a red-hot market. 

“The charts serve as a good leading indicator of price movement,” said Misha Alefirenko, founder of crypto market maker VelvetFormula. “This means people are redeeming back their BTC and ETH and that looks very bearish.”

Other markets

Digital assets on the CoinDesk 20 are mixed Thursday, but mostly green. Notable winners as of 21:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):

Read More: XRP Climbs Back up Crypto Rankings With Near 50% Rise

Notable losers:

Equities:

Commodities:

  • Oil was up 0.85%. Price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude: $50.94.
  • Gold was in the red 0.21% and at $1,913 as of press time.

Treasurys:

  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield climbedThursday jumping to 1.076 and in the green 3.4%.
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CoinDesk

Bitcoin Miners See Revenue Per TH/s Nearly Triple in 3 Months

5 years 9 months ago

Bitcoin mining revenue has nearly tripled in the past three months measured by dollars per terahashes per second (TH/s).

  • In early October, miners were earning roughly $0.078 per TH/s.
  • Following bitcoin‘s parabolic price rally, that revenue has soared by 265%, reaching $0.284 Thursday.
  • Not since early August 2019 has miner revenue reached these levels, according to data from Luxor Technologies.
  • Bitcoin cut through the $40,000 mark Thursday afternoon, extending its early year gains to well over 30%, extending on its more than 300% gains in 2020.
  • With market conditions prompting existing miners to expand their operations and new participants to join the sector, mining equipment manufacturers are struggling to keep pace with demand. Bitmain, for example, has sold out until August and nearly doubled the price of its S19 model, per CoinDesk’s prior reporting.
  • Amid the mining machine shortage, miners are scouring secondary markets for any available and efficient machines they can find as mining revenue continues to increase along bitcoin’s price.
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CoinDesk

‘Bitcoin Rich List’ Rebounds to Hit All-Time High

5 years 9 months ago

The number of addresses holding over 1,000 bitcoin (worth of approximately $37.5 million at the current price) is now at 2,334, a new all-time high, after the number dropped at the end of December by 3.7% to 2,221. This is an indication “whales” (large bitcoin holders) have been bullishly accumulating more bitcoin and driving the price higher.

The 2,334 addresses each holding more than 1,000 bitcoin represents a gain of more than 30% compared with the end of 2017, the height of the previous crypto bull market, according to on-chain data site Glassnode. The metric has been on the rise since mid-October 2020, but suffered a temporary 4% drop between Dec. 18 and Dec. 26.

“The dip and renewed increase at the end of December shows relatively little interest in profit taking on the part of these large holders, even though almost all holdings are currently in profit,” according to CoinDesk Research’s quarterly review report published on Jan. 7. 

Related: Bitcoin Goes Institutional, Ethereum Spreads Its Wings: CoinDesk Q4 2020 Review

Data from BitInfoCharts also shows there are 6,633 addresses holding bitcoin worth more than $10,000,000 and, according to crypto exchange Kraken’s market recap and outlook report for December 2020, bitcoin addresses with more than 100 bitcoin accumulated an additional 47,500 bitcoin (currently worth $1.8 billion) throughout December because of the price rally.

The so-called “Bitcoin Rich List” reflects rising institutional involvement in the bitcoin market since the beginning of 2020. Another sign of that is the fast-growing volumes and open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), an institution-focused derivatives exchange.

At the press time, bitcoin’s price was trading at $38,290, down only moments after breaking the $40,000 landmark for the first time ever. Only the day before, it crossed the $36,000 mark for the first time. The total value of the whole crypto market also surpassed the $1 trillion landmark on Wednesday.

Read More: Bitcoin Tops $40K for First Time, Has Doubled in Less Than a Month

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Reaches $40.3K While DeFi Value Locked Inflates to Over $22B

“While the 2017 bitcoin rally was largely driven by retail frenzy, the 2020 rally was driven mainly by institutions,” according to CoinDesk Research’s report . “The accelerating rhythm of large institutional investors publicly talking about an investing in bitcoin as a portfolio asset has not only lent validation of bitcoin’s role in portfolios; it has also attracted the attention of other investors. This self-reinforcing loop is likely to continue into 2021, especially given the mounting uncertainty around currencies and inflation.”

Bitcoin’s market capitalization currently stands at ninth on asset tracking website Assetdash’s asset list, only lower than that of electric vehicle maker Tesla. That company’s CEO, Elon Musk, replaced Amazon’s Jeff Bezos earlier Thursday as the richest person in the world after Tesla’s share price soared.

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‘Decentralized Court’ Aragon Association Hit With Flurry of Resignations

5 years 9 months ago

Twelve staffers involved in the Aragon Network announced their resignations Thursday because of its apparent lack of financial transparency.

In a letter posted on GitHub and shared in the group’s Discord channel, AA governance lead John Light said he was leaving. “I no longer recognize the place that I used to love to work,” he wrote. “I believe it no longer reflects my values, nor the values of the Aragon Manifesto.” Light was with the AA for three years, according to his blog.

Aragon Network is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) seeking to build digital courtrooms that “make it possible for organizations, entrepreneurs and investors to do business without a legal nexus,” according to Messari. The project is backed by the Association and Aragon One, a business venture funded by the Association.

Related: Bitcoin Goes Institutional, Ethereum Spreads Its Wings: CoinDesk Q4 2020 Review

While Light declined to comment to CoinDesk, he implored in his letter for the AA to “to publish all meeting minutes and financials for public review” going forward.

Light’s resignation was then followed by 11 other public resignations of staffers of Aragon One, the for-profit firm leading the protocol’s development. Almost every resignation post in the project’s Discord channel was linked to Light’s letter. CoinDesk has reached out to several former Aragon developers for comment.

Aragon Association financials

The mass exodus of Aragon developers was preceded by some 52,000 in ether (ETH) from the project’s 2017 initial coin offering (ICO) moving onto various exchanges on Dec. 15 and Dec. 22. 

At least some of that ETH – worth $63.9 million at press time – was moved into various other cryptocurrencies and tokens, particularly the dollar-pegged tether (USDT) stablecoin. It’s unclear if the mass transfer of funds was a catalyst for the resignations. Light declined to comment.

Related: Maker’s MKR Token Surges to 2-Year High on DeFi Growth

The AA retains ownership over the group’s ICO funds, according to the Aragon Manifesto, which was the fourth-largest ICO at the time of its completion.

Aragon Association co-founder Luis Cuende said the ETH was moved for “portfolio diversification” when asked by community members in Discord.

“While I am saddened to see these resignations, some divergence in the approach to building Aragon, or any project for that matter, is inevitable,” said Aragon Association Executive Director Joe Charlesworth. “The Aragon Association was proud to have funded the valuable work of third-party groups such as Aragon One. Ultimately, however, Aragon is bigger than any one individual, and it is bigger than any one group.”

In a statement on Discord, Aragon One CEO Jorge Izquierdo said: “For now I just want to say that I feel the deepest respect for all the Aragon One team members that have decided to leave upholding the Aragon Manifesto to the direst consquences. You guys are Aragon and your loss is irreplaceable.”

UPDATE (Jan. 7, 20:49 UTC): This article has been updated with quotes from Charlesworth and Izquierdo. Additionally, while Light was employed by the Aragon Association, the 11 other resignees were employed by Aragon One.

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Finland Pushes to Sell Tainted Trove of Bitcoins Worth Tens of Millions

5 years 9 months ago

Finland’s customs agency is preparing to cash in on a stash of drug-linked bitcoins that’s now worth tens of millions of dollars.

Putting a price on the customs agency’s 1,981 bitcoins appeared foolish at press time given how the market-leading cryptocurrency is soaring and crashing by the thousands seemingly every minute. Even so, with bitcoin trading hands above $35,000 for the past 24 hours, one could value Finland’s trove north of $69 million.

The sale, which the agency is still planning out according to a Tuesday report in Helsingin Sanomat, will almost certainly realize gains far beyond what it expected when the Finnish authorities seized the first 1,666 bitcoins from drug traders in 2016. Bitcoin was trading in the $600 range at the time and the stash was worth less than 1 million euros.

Related: Chainalysis Wants to Help the Feds Sell Millions in Forfeited Bitcoin

Fears of the bitcoins re-entering the drug trade had been holding up a sale ever since. But agents appear to have place their concerns aside. Pekka Pylkkänen, CFO of Customs, said the agency will “realize virtual currencies” after talking it through with the Ministry of Finance.

No date has been set as of yet.

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Coinbase Acquires Routefire to Beef Up Institutional Bitcoin Offering

5 years 9 months ago

Leading U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase has acquired trade execution startup Routefire. The terms of the deal were not disclosed.

“While we’ll no longer be supporting the Routefire platform, we are very excited to continue on our mission of bringing advanced trading infrastructure to the rapidly developing cryptocurrency markets by joining Coinbase,” Routefire wrote in a blog post Thursday, adding:

“We remain deeply committed to this ecosystem and are excited to help develop Coinbase’s market-leading suite of institutional products, which provides the true end-to-end solution that we believe best meets our customers’ needs.”

Related: Ignoring Outages, Coinbase Futures Set Record Highs as Bitcoin Rally Continues

A Coinbase spokesman confirmed the deal but declined to comment.

Additional resources in the trading infrastructure realm couldn’t come soon enough for the San Francisco-based crypto exchange. Coinbase has seen intermittent outages in recent days as bitcoin has surged to unprecedented highs currently near $40,000 per coin.

It is Coinbase’s first acquisition of the new year, albeit likely a small one. The website of the San Francisco-based Routefire shows a team of seven led by CEO Jason Victor.

In 2020, Coinbase’s acquisition of crypto prime broker Tagomi helped the exchange execute mega bitcoin buys for MicroStrategy, One River Digital and potentially others.

Read more: Coinbase Brokered MicroStrategy’s $425M Bitcoin Purchase, Exchange Says

Related: Coinbase, Kraken Back Up Again After Outages as Bitcoin Hits Another Record

As institutional interest in bitcoin as “digital gold” continues to ramp up, other firms have sought to strengthen their prime brokerage offerings. Prime brokerage refers to a suite of services tailored to the needs of deep-pocketed investors.

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Blockchain Bites: Sustainability and Uncertainty as Crypto Crosses $1T Benchmark

5 years 9 months ago

One bitcoin is now worth more than $39,000 as the value of all cryptos passes $1 trillion.

Top shelf

Institutions are buying
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is now the largest bitcoin futures trading platform, with some $2.1 billion in outstanding contracts, according to data site Skew. CME is frequently cited as a harbinger of institutional involvement due to its long-standing pedigree in traditional markets.

Crypto malware
Researchers have detailed the inner workings of a pernicious and vicious malware targeting crypto wallet users called ElectroRAT, which may have compromised 6.5 thousand people already. The complex operation spins up fake domains, websites, apps and social media accounts to work its way onto a victim’s computer – where its operators will then be able to hunt for information related to a user’s crypto wallets. With bitcoin mooning, crypto-jacking operations are only likely to step up.

Related: First Mover: $1 Trillion of Cryptocurrencies Shows Booming ‘Asset Class’

Tax play
PayPal and Coinbase have both invested in crypto tax startup TaxBit, which offers “tailored software solutions” to automate filing requirements for consumers, businesses and exchanges. In years past, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has sent conflicting messages regarding how to declare crypto holdings.

Quick bites
  • VACCINATION AUTHORITY: A hospital on the mediterrrean island of Cyprus is using the VeChain blockchain to certify COVID-19 immunizations. (CoinDesk)
  • LIGHTNING ROUND: U.K.-based CoinCorner is the third exchange to add Lightning Network support, following Bitfinex and River Financial. (CoinDesk)
  • $1B MARKET CAP: Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency mining firm Marathon Patent Group’s shares surged Wednesday. (CoinDesk)
  • ROADBLOCK: ShapeShift’s pledge to decentralize and strip away KYC requirements faces regulatory hurdles. (Decrypt)
  • REALIZED VALUE? Bitcoin’s realized price, the average price at which every coin last moved, crossed the $10,000 mark. (Decrypt)
  • EXCHANGE ACQUISITION? South Korean gaming giant Nexon is reportedly preparing to acquire crypto exchange Bithumb for about $460 million, though the sourcing is dodgy. (Maekyung)
Market intel

Alt season
Analysts are forecasting increased volatility for alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). The spread between the six-month implied volatility for ether and bitcoin – a measure of the expected relative price volatility between the two – has risen to a record high of 46%. In English? “The market expects ether and other alternative coins [primarily based on Ethereum, and thus likely to trade alongside it] to chart bigger percentage moves than bitcoin in the near term,” according to CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole.

Making MKR
MKR, an Ethereum-based governance token, surged to its highest price level in two years on Wednesday. MKR was trading at $1,251.14 yesterday, short of its Jan. 21, 2018, record of $1,798.70. Analysts point to a resurgence of activity in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, as well as a supply surge of the MakerDAO-tied stablecoin dai, as the cause.

At stake

New top
Amid political mayhem in Washington, D.C., where supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump stormed and briefly occupied the Capitol building during the congressional certification of President-elect Joe Biden on Wednesday, crypto markets continued to rise.

Related: Kimchi Spreads, ‘Rat Poison,’ Shape Shifts: What You Need to Know in Crypto Today

The total market capitalization for crypto assets has passed $1 trillion in dollar-denominated value, according to CoinGecko’s index of 6,124 assets. This high water mark comes amid an ongoing market rally, which is showing little signs of abating.

This time last year, the total value of all crypto assets stood at $200 billion, according to Coin Metrics data. And in 2017, during the last prolonged crypto bull run, the market’s total capitalization hovered around $760 billion before collapsing.

“[A]ll I can think about is how sustainable it all feels,” Messari founder Ryan Selkis wrote in a newsletter yesterday, preceding the milestone metric. Selkis cited the increasing use and exposure of stablecoins, the imminent improvements to Ethereum’s blockchain and the strengthening foundation for a crypto-based Web 3.0 as particular reasons for the sustainability of this rally.

Oh, and “BTC is at the beginning of its institutional supercycle,” he wrote. Indeed, bitcoin is soaring, having set a new high above $39,000 today after several days of remaining in the green. Bitcoin’s $726.5 billion market cap accounts for just under three-quarters of the entire crypto market cap.

In fact, “bitcoin is more valuable than all but seven publicly traded companies, sitting between Tesla at $758.8 billion and Tencent at $723.0 billion,” CoinDesk news editor Kevin Reynolds wrote. The crypto’s next closest rival, Ethereum, is valued at $140 billion, according to the CoinDesk 20.

In 2020, bitcoin became an attractive investment for hedge funds, corporations and high-net worth investors seeking to hedge their bets against forecasted inflation. A spout of coronavirus relief and a loosening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has many analysts concerned about a coming devaluation of the U.S. dollar.

To be sure, inflation has failed to meet the Fed’s target of 2%. Though bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, still represent an intriguing investment in a world beset by uncertainty. Cryptographic assurances and public ledgers have value for certain types of monies or assets.

“The $1 trillion mark cements cryptocurrency as a investable asset class that no longer sits on the fringes of Traditional Finance as a toy for retail investors,” Jack Purdy, a Messari analyst told CoinDesk’s Zack Voell. “It demonstrates that this asset class is large enough to absorb large orders like we’ve seen recently with the slew of institutions entering over the last few months.”

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