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• Bitcoin’s price has briefly dropped to $7,000 – its lowest level since May.
• Next losses may extend to falling channel support at $6,800, with a weekly chart indicator reporting the strongest bearish bias since March. 
• Intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions. As a result, consolidation or a minor bounce to $7,500 could be seen before a deeper drop. 
• A break above $8,231 is needed to invalidate lower highs setup and confirm a short-term bullish reversal. The outlook as per the weekly chart would turn bullish once the RSI has moved above 53.00.

Bitcoin’s price dropped to a six-month low on Friday, with a widely tracked technical indicator reporting the strongest bearish bias in eight months. 

The number one cryptocurrency by market value fell to $7,009 on Bitstamp at 10:05 UTC – the lowest level since May 17 – erasing the entire rally from $7,293 to $10,350 in October, plus some. 

At press time, BTC has bounced back slightly and is trading at $7,220, down 8 percent on a 24-hour basis.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The downtrend looks sustainable, as the weekly relative strength index (RSI) – an indicator used to confirm market trends and overbought and oversold conditions – has declined to 43.00, the lowest reading since mid-March. A reading below 50 indicates bearish conditions. So, it seems safe to say the market sentiment is extremely bearish. 

Weekly chart

The RSI is holding well below 50 and pointing south (above left), confirming the bearish trend in the market. The MACD histogram is also printing deeper bars below the zero line, indicating a strengthening of bearish momentum.   

The cryptocurrency is trapped in a falling channel (above right), represented by the trendlines connecting June and August highs and July and September lows. 

As a result, a further drop to the channel support at $6,800 cannot be ruled out. That said, a minor bounce to $7,700–$7,800 may be seen first, according to the intraday charts. 

Hourly and 4-hour chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

The RSI on the hourly chart is producing higher lows as opposed to lower lows on the price chart – bullish divergence suggesting sellers may be running out of steam. The RSI on the 4-hour chart is hovering well below 30, indicating oversold conditions. 

8-hour chart

The series of lower highs and lower lows seen above indicates the bears are in control. The immediate outlook would turn bullish only if and when prices invalidate the lower highs setup with a move above $8,231. 

Overall, the outlook as per the weekly chart will remain bearish as long as the RSI is held below 53.00 and the price is trapped in a falling channel.

Note that as per textbook rules, RSI’s move above 50 implies a bullish reversal. In this case, however, 53.00 is the demarcation line between the bulls and the bears. 

This is due to the fact that the indicator consistently bounced up from 53.00 levels throughout the 2016-17 bull market. That level was breached in early January 2018 following which BTC fell to $6,000 on Feb. 6.

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Understanding short-term and long-term moving averages (MAs) is important for trading strategies, whether for cryptocurrency or traditional assets.

Two rare but powerful signals that traders look for occur when the short-term and long-term MAs cross.

On the upside, that’s the golden cross, and, on the downside, it’s called the death cross.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Golden and death crosses have predicted many of the worst economic downturns of the previous century; for example, the death cross predicted the 1929, 1938, 1974 and 2008 bear markets.

Importantly, they underscore the potency of a primary trend, enabling traders to navigate the chaotic waters of bitcoin’s (BTC) extreme intraday and day-to-day price volatility.

Golden cross

The golden cross occurs when a short-term MA crosses over a long-term one to the upside, signaling to traders to expect a strong bullish upward move in an asset’s price.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

There are two main requirements to a golden cross with the first being an end to a sharp downtrend due to seller exhaustion, meaning the downward pressure from sellers in the market has abated. The second requirement is for the short-term MA to rise above the long-term MA, typically the 50-period and 100-period MAs.

As seen highlighted above in green, a golden cross appeared on the daily chart for BTC in March, signaling a strong upward move away from the low of $3,122, witnessed Dec. 15, 2018.

Starting on March 12, prices rose by as much as 260 percent, from $3,859 to near $14,000 by June 26.

The golden cross is best used for analyzing long time frames compared to the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

Death cross

Conversely, a death cross is created by long-term buyer exhaustion, and an asset’s short-term MA crossing beneath a long-term MA, typically the 50- and 200-period averages.

On March 30, 2018, BTC showed greater bearish conditions when the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA, presaging a 54 percent decline in value from $6,850 to a bottom of $3,122 by Dec. 15.

As with the golden cross, the death cross is best identified using longer time frames, as the trend would need to be confirmed by not reversing the next day.

They’re not always perfect, but identifying and utilizing the golden and death crosses with other indicators can be an invaluable rudder, helping you to navigate the muddy waters of the world’s most volatile asset class.

Golden cross image via Shutterstock; charts via TradingView

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• BTC is on the defensive and may face selling pressure in the run up to the bearish crossover of the 100- and 200-day averages.
• Prices will likely breach the 50-day average support near $8,550 and extend losses toward $8,000 in the short term.
• Confirmation of the bear cross may mark an interim bottom in BTC, according to historical data.
• A high-volume move above a three-month descending trendline, currently at $9,200, is needed to revive the bullish view.

Bitcoin risks falling below key support near $8,550, with a widely followed bitcoin price indicator teasing its first bearish turn in over a year.

The top cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading at $8,610 on Bitstamp, having bounced up from the 50-day moving average (MA) support at $8,543 earlier today.

The 50-day MA has been restricting downside since Nov. 8, but may be breached soon, courtesy of a looming bearish crossover between major price averages.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Bitcoin’s 100-day MA (now at $9,436) is now beginning to trend south and looks set to cross below the 200-day MA (at $9,290) in the next couple of days. That would confirm a bearish crossover – the first of these MAs since April 17, 2018.

Seasoned traders would argue that MA crossovers are based on past data and are lagging indicators. While that’s true, BTC is already on the defensive, having repeatedly failed to break above a 3.5-month bearish trendline in the last three weeks.

The cryptocurrency has also found acceptance below the 200-day MA – a barometer of long-term trend. As such, the impending bear cross will likely bolster the bearish sentiment and give prices another nudge down.

Daily chart

The cryptocurrency has pulled back from $9,300 to $8,600 in the last few days, validating the bearish view put forward by the multiple rejections at the trendline connecting June and August highs.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

The relative strength index is hovering below 50, indicating a bearish bias, while the MACD histogram is producing deeper bars below the zero line – also a sign of strengthening downside momentum.

So, the 50-day MA support at $8,543 could be breached ahead of the bear cross. Below that level, the next major support is seen at $8,000.

The bearish case would weaken if there is a strong bounce from the 50-day MA, but that seems a tall order right now. A high-volume UTC close above the descending trendline hurdle at $9,200 is needed for bullish reversal.

Note that confirmation of the bear cross, however, could mark an interim bottom in BTC, as has been seen historically.

BTC sell-off ran out of steam near $275 two days ahead of a bear cross confirmation on Oct. 7, 2014, following which prices jumped to levels above $400 by mid-October, according to Bitstamp data. Another bear cross on April 29 the same year was followed by consolidation in the range of $420-$450 and a rally to $680 by early June.

And in 2018, prices rallied from $7,900 to levels near $10,000 in the 2.5 weeks following the bear cross in mid-April.

Back then, BTC was better bid in the days leading up to the crossover with prices rising from $6,500 to $8,500. In such situations, looming bearish crossovers barely receive any market attention.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Bitcoin’s consecutive weekly losses and multiple failures at key resistance have shifted risk in favor of a drop to around $8,550 and perhaps as low as $8,000.
• Daily chart indicators have turned bearish for the first time in over a month, supporting the case for a deeper decline.
• A high-volume move above $9,335 (descending trendline from 2019 high) is needed to revive the bullish view.

Bitcoin is looking south after back-to-back weekly losses and multiple rejections at key price resistance.

The top cryptocurrency by market value fell 2.6 percent and 3 percent in the weeks ended Nov. 3 and 10, respectively.

Importantly, BTC has also failed for three straight weeks to close (Sunday, UTC) above the 3.5-month trendline sloping downwards from the 2019 high of $13,880. Acceptance above that hurdle would have meant a revival of the bull market set in motion by a solid break above $5,000 in early April.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The inability to pass that level (currently around $9,335) has weakened the bullish case put forward by the high-volume rise from $7,300 to $10,300 on Oct. 25–26.

Markets usually test dip demand after multiple rejections at key resistance and bitcoin is already feeling the pull of gravity. At press time, the cryptocurrency is trading at $8,680 on Bitstamp, representing a 1 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

Losses could be extended further with the 200-day moving average support now breached. The barometer of long-term market trend is currently located at $9,236. Other technical indicators have also turned bearish over the weekend.

Weekly chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

BTC is losing altitude, having faced rejection at the descending trendline for three straight weeks.

The 14-week relative strength index (RSI) remains in bearish territory below resistance at 53.00. It’s worth noting that the 53.00–55.00 range acted as a strong support throughout the 2016–2017 bull run.

Hence, a move above 55.00, if and when it occurs, could be taken as a confirmation of bull market.

Monthly and daily charts

Bitcoin’s failure to hold above the descending, bearish 5-candle MA (above left), as represented by the November candle’s upper wick, is translating into a price drop, as expected.

The MACD histogram on the daily chart (right) has crossed below zero over the weekend and is currently signaling at its most bearish since Oct. 3 with a -59.00 reading.  The RSI is currently bearish below 50.

BTC has also found acceptance below the 200-day MA – a level that acted as strong support in the nine days to Nov. 7.

All-in-all, BTC appears on track to test and possibly breach the 50-day MA at $8,552. A violation there would expose the psychological support of $8,000.

On the higher side, a convincing move above the 3.5-month descending trendline hurdle, currently at $9,335, is needed to confirm a bullish breakout.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Bitcoin’s short-term 50-period moving average is edging closer toward the longer-term 100-period moving average on the weekly chart, hinting at a potential bullish “golden cross” formation for the first time in 3.5 years.
• In the shorter term, however, total weekly volume has fallen period-to-period as indecision continues to grip the market.
• Price action is caught between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs). The next major move either way is likely to determine trend bias going forward, if a firm close above or below those averages is confirmed.

Bitcoin (BTC) looks on track to produce a bullish long-term signal not seen in 3.5 years.

The 50-period and the 100-period MAs have edged closer together on the weekly chart after BTC rebounded from $7,293 to $10,350 on Oct. 26, according to Bitstamp data.

A cross of the 50-period MA moving up above the slower 100-period MA, known as a golden cross, generally hints at a strong shift in a trend and can act as confirmation of a bullish bias for the long-term view.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The last time that bull cross occurred on the weekly chart was way back in May 2016, when the price of BTC started rising from $438 to near $20,000 in December 2017 – a 4,800 percent increase. If the MA’s continue to converge as currently, the cross looks likely in late December or early 2020, but it’s still too early for a precise call.

Weekly chart

There is inherent risk involved with making such comparisons from previous years, as market conditions have changed significantly. Yet there is merit for seeking additional confirmation in the long-term trend, since BTC’s miner reward halving in May 2020 is likely to stir up a bunch of market activity as the supply-cutting event approaches.

Total weekly volume has shrunk from two weeks ago, an indication of market indecision on a fairly stagnant price, while the RSI is barely trending bullish above 52.7 (neutral being 50).

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

However, should the two lines converge and then cross bullish,  that would be a strong indication that the 2019 reversal rally has legs. With a strong fundamental event for BTC occurring right around the corner, it’s important to take note of the bullish signals on larger time frames.

More immediately, the daily chart suggests market equilibrium, as prices have been largely stuck within a $650 range for nearly two weeks.

Daily chart

BTC’s price action has been caught between the 100-day and 200-day MAs for 12 days.

Generally speaking, when prices are above the 200-day MA, the long-term trend can be considered bullish. Conversely, if prices are beneath the 100-day MA then that is an indication of mid-term (30-60 day) bearish conditions.

The current scenario highlights the indecisive sentiment felt across the market. A repeated failure to close above the 100-day MA could open up doors to $8,800 in the immediate short-term, as previously discussed.

Indecision will continue until a firm close above $9,573 (100-day MA) or below $9,180 (200-day MA) occurs with conviction, until then, continued sideways ranging can be expected.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by TradingView

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• Bitcoin’s repeated failure to produce a strong bounce from key support indicates the bullish sentiment has fizzled somewhat.
• Failure to hold above a bearish MA on the longer-term chart indicates scope for a deeper drop.
• BTC risks falling to $8,800 in the short-term and may extend the decline to $8,500.
• A high-volume triangle breakout on a 4-hour chart would be bullish, although that looks unlikely at press time.

Bitcoin is struggling to revive its stalled rally and could soon roll over to deeper support levels below $9,000.

The top cryptocurrency picked up a bid near $7,500 on Oct. 25 and jumped to $10,350 on the following day, according to Bitstamp data. The breakout into five figures, however, was short-lived, as prices quickly fell back below $10,000 on Oct. 28 and have remained largely trapped in a narrow range of $9,600–$9,000 since.

Downside has been restricted so far by the 200-day average – a barometer of long-term market trends. A pullback typically reverses from key support levels like the 200-day MA, especially if volumes are low, as has been the case recently.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

So far, however, the cryptocurrency has failed to produce a strong bounce from the support, despite positive seasonality.

Prices jumped more than $400 to $9,586 from the MA on Nov. 4 only to surrender gains on the following day. A similar weak bounce has been observed in the last 24 hours or so with prices rising to $9,450 only to dive back to lows near $9,200.

These shallow bounces indicate bullish sentiment generated by the sharp rise to $10,350 has weakened and the market may test dip demand by revisiting levels below $9,000.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $9,170 on Bitstamp, representing a 1.50 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

Daily chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

BTC’s upside has been capped by the trendline connecting June 26 and Aug. 6 lows multiple times in the last few days. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency has tested the 200-day MA support five times in eight days.

Trading volumes have fallen sharply since the recent drop-off from $10,350. Low-volume pullbacks are often reversed, but a decent bounce continues to remain elusive.

All-in-all, the cryptocurrency looks set for a drop to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,800.

Monthly chart

The upper shadow of the monthly candle represents rejection above the 5-month MA at $9,265. A failure to hold above descending averages usually translates into a notable price drop. Major support is seen at the ascending 10-month MA near $8,000.

4-hour chart

The contracting triangle seen above looks likely to be breached to the lower side, as suggested by the daily and monthly indicators.

The ascending 100- and 200-candle MAs, currently at $8,928 and $8,558, respectively, could offer support if a drop out of the zone is confirmed.

The bearish view would be invalidated if the triangle ends with a high-volume bullish breakout. In that case, a retest of $10,000 could be seen.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• A four-month falling trendline proved a tough nut to crack during the Asian trading hours and reversed bitcoin’s rise from $9,200 to $9,500. The outlook, however, would turn bearish only below the 200-day average support at $9,127.
• The pullback from $9,500 to $9,200 lacked volume support and could be short-lived.
• A high-volume UTC close above $9,470 is needed to confirm an upside break of the multi-month falling trendline and open the doors for $13,880 (2019 high).
• Acceptance below the 200-day MA would weaken the immediate bullish. The resulting sell-off to $8,500, if any, will likely be transient.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle for a bullish breakout continues with a falling trendline capping gains for the fifth time in 11 days.

The top cryptocurrency is currently trading in the red near $9,300 on Bitstamp, having faced rejection near $9,470 – the resistance of the trendline connecting June 26 and Aug. 6 highs – during the Asian trading hours.

The four-month trendline sloping downwards from the 2019 high of $13,880 first came into play on Oct. 26. On that day, prices clocked a high of $10,350 but failed to print a UTC close above the resistance line.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Similar price action was seen on the following two days and on Monday when prices rose from $9,200 to a one-week high of $9,586 but failed to beat the trendline hurdle.

The repeated failure to scale the multi-month downtrend line may force some investors to question the sustainability of the recent rise from five-month lows below $7,500.

However, such fears may be premature, as prices are still holding above the 200-day MA support, a barometer of long-term market trends, as seen in the chart below.

Daily chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

BTC is again struggling to get past the descending trendline, currently at $9,470. Even so, it is early to call a bearish reversal, as the 200-day MA support at $9,127 is intact.

The average has been restricting downside since Oct. 30, having worked as resistance multiple times in the 16 days to Oct. 11.

All-in-all, BTC is being squeezed between the long-term average support and the falling trendline resistance.

A high-volume UTC close above $9,470 is needed to confirm an upside break of the falling trendline. That would imply a resumption of the bull market from lows near $4,100 seen at the beginning of April and open the doors for resistance at $13,880.

On the downside, acceptance below the long-held 200-day MA support at $9,127 will likely invite stronger selling pressure, leading to a drop to $8,500.

A bullish breakout looks likely, as the cryptocurrency tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of reward halving, as discussed last week.

Note that the recent pullback from $10,350 lacked volume support. Essentially, it represents a bull breather and could be reversed.

Hourly chart

BTC jumped from $9,273 to $9,586 in the 60 minutes to 22:00 UTC on Monday with buying volume (green bar) hitting the highest level since Oct. 31.

Indeed, the spike has been erased with prices falling to $9,165 a few hours ago but with weak trading volumes.  Therefore, the possibility of BTC rising back to highs near $9,600 cannot be ruled out.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Bitcoin’s repeated defense of the 200-day average support indicates an end of the pullback from $10,350 and scope for a bounce to the 100-day average at $9,601.
• A UTC close above that level and a further rise to above $10,000 cannot be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacked volume support.
• Acceptance below the hourly chart support of $8,977 would weaken the case for a bounce in the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin looks primed for a price bounce to $9,600, having repeatedly defended long-term support in the last 72 hours.

The top cryptocurrency by market value began the week on a negative note by shedding 3.56 percent on Monday. Notably, BTC formed a candle with a long upper shadow on that day, signaling buyer exhaustion and opening the doors for a deeper drop to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820.

So far, however, the downside has been restricted around the 200-day moving average (MA), a widely-tracked barometer of the long-term market trend.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The cryptocurrency dipped to $8,985 on Thursday, below the 200-day MA, but soon recovered. On similar lines, Tuesday’s dip below the key average was shallow and short-lived.

Similarly, BTC came close to testing the MA at $9,046 during the Asian trading hours today before jumping back to highs near $9,200.

The repeated defense of the major support indicates the low-volume pullback from the high of $10,350 reached last Friday has likely ended and the risks are skewed to the upside.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $9,120 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.40 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Daily chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

BTC is defending the 200-day MA for the third straight day.

The cryptocurrency formed a doji candle on Thursday, which occurs when the market witnesses two-way business and a flat end of the day close (UTC). Usually, that candlestick pattern is taken as a sign of indecision in the market place.

The latest pattern, however, has appeared following a $1,000 pullback from $10,350 and represents indecision or exhaustion among sellers near the 200-day MA support.

As a result, a bounce, possibly to the 100-day MA at $9,601, may be in the offing in the next 24 hours or so.

Note that trading volumes dropped as prices pulled back from $10,350 to $9,000. A low-volume pullback is often reversed, so, a rally all the way back to $10,350 could be on the cards.

Bitcoin has also failed three times in the last six days to close above the 100-day MA. Therefore, if the bulls can pull off a UTC close above the average, it will likely invite stronger buying pressure and lead to a move above$10,350.

3-day chart

Bitcoin jumped 28 percent in the three days to Oct.27, reinforcing the bullish view put forward by the 100-candle MA’s move above the 200-candle MA (bull cross) confirmed in mid-October.

Further, the sharp rise was also backed by the highest trading volume since February 2018. The path of least resistance, therefore, is to the higher side.

Hourly chart

The case for a rise to $9,600 in the next 24 hours would weaken if the horizontal support line at $8,977 seen in the above chart is breached with strong volumes.

That would expose support lined up at $8,820 (Oct. 11 high). A violation there would prove costly as the next major support is lined up directly near$8,400.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Positive Seasonality

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Daily and hourly charts

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Monday’s Price Drop Didn’t Break Bitcoin’s Bullish Trend

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• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

Daily chart and hourly charts

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China influence

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Bitcoin remains trapped in a four-month falling channel despite registering double-digit gains last week.
• Prices could pull back to former resistance-turned-support of $8,800 in the next 24 hours. The bearish case would be invalidated above $9,730.
• A weekly close or two consecutive daily closes (UTC) above the falling channel hurdle at $9,730 are needed to confirm a resumption of the bull rally from April lows around $4,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) eked out double-digit gains last week, but failed to invalidate a four-month bearish trend.

The top cryptocurrency by market capitalization closed (UTC) at $9,557 on Sunday, representing a 16 percent gain from the weekly opening price of $8,237. That’s the biggest weekly gain since the third week of June, when prices had rallied by 20.70 percent, according to Bitstamp data.

The week’s performance looks more impressive if we take into account the fact that prices had dropped to five-month lows below $7,300 on Wednesday. The breakdown, however, was reversed and prices surged by 42 percent to $10,350 on Friday, following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s encouraging comments on blockchain adoption.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The 16-percent gain seen last week is bitcoin’s ninth double-digit weekly rise of 2019. A 26.73 percent rally seen in the first week of April is the biggest weekly gain of 2019 so far.

Back then, prices had jumped from $4,000 to $5,200, confirming a bullish breakout. The latest double-digit weekly gain, however, has failed to achieve the same, as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin invalidated a bearish lower-highs set up with a convincing move above the Dec. 25 high of $4,236 in the first week of April. The bullish reversal confirmation paved the way for a solid rally to $13,880 by the end of June.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

Since then, the cryptocurrency has charted a series of lower highs and lower lows, as illustrated by the trendlines connecting the June and August highs and July and September lows.

Prices jumped 16 percent last week, but failed to close above the upper edge of the four-month falling channel.

With the bearish channel still valid, it’s too early to call a resumption of the bull market. For that, the bulls need to close the week (Sunday, UTC) above the channel resistance, currently at $9,730.

Last week’s price rise was backed by a surge in trading volumes to the highest level since July. Hence, a strong follow-through cannot be ruled out.

That said, the short-term charts are calling a pullback to $8,800. At press time, BTC is changing hands a around $9,400 on Bitstamp, representing a 9.17 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

Daily and 4-hour charts

The long upper wick attached to Friday’s and today’s daily candle indicates buyer exhaustion above $10,000 and scope for a price pullback.

The bearish divergence of the relative strength index on the 4-hour line chart (above right) also indicates buyer exhaustion. A bearish divergence occurs when an indicator forms lower highs, contradicting higher highs on price.

As a result, a retest of $8,820 – the former resistance-turned-support of Oct. 11 high – could be in the offing in the next 24 hours.

The bearish divergence would be invalidated if prices rise above $9,730. Failed bearish patterns are powerful bullish signals. Hence, a break above $9,730 would likely yield a quick move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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Bitcoin’s price was quoted in five digits across cryptocurrency exchanges earlier today, but the breakout into $10,000 was short-lived.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value jumped to $10,350 at 01:45 UTC – the highest level since Sept. 24 – according to Bitstamp data. Meanwhile, the global average price, as calculated by CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, clocked a high of $10,332.

Just 24 hours ago, the cryptocurrency was reeling under bearish pressures below $7,500 and prominent chart analysts were calling a deeper drop, courtesy of the so-called “death cross” – a bearish cross of long-term moving averages.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

BTC, however, picked up a bid around $7,500 in the early U.S. trading hours on Friday and rose to $8,800 at 17:20 UTC. Prices then consolidated in the narrow range of $8,500 to $8,700 for a few hours, before printing highs above $10,000 earlier today. Essentially, the death cross trapped sellers on the wrong side for the fourth time since 2014.

Biggest single-day gain since April

Bitcoin closed (UTC) at $8,662 on Friday, representing a 16.51 percent gain on the day, as per Bitstamp data. That is the biggest single-day rise since April 2. Back then, BTC had rallied 18.45 percent from $4,133 to $5,080.

Further, the rise from lows below $7,400 to highs above $10,300 is reportedly the third-largest 24-hour price gain in bitcoin’s history, as pointed out by crypto-asset analyst Yassine  Elmandjra.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

Experts have associated the latest double-digit surge with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s comments that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology. After all, China was one of the biggest sources of demand for cryptocurrencies during the 2017 bull run.

Prominent observers like Anthony Pompliano are of the opinion that the Chinese president’s public support of the blockchain technology will force the U.S. and other major nations to embrace the technology, perhaps boosting bitcoin.

The investor community, therefore, is expecting the rally to continue. Some observers, however, are worried that the market optimism is premature, as China is developing a digital version of its own currency and is unlikely to lift its ban on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

It remains to be seen whether Xi’s comments power further gains in BTC. The cryptocurrency is losing altitude at press time.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $9,320 on Bitstamp, representing a $1,000-plus drop from the Asian session high of $10,350. Technical charts indicate a bullish breakout would be confirmed if prices find acceptance above $9,750.

Daily chart

The daily chart shows early signs of a bullish reversal. For instance, bitcoin’s convincing move above $8,352 (Oct. 21 high) has invalidated the bearish lower highs setup. The cryptocurrency has also violated resistance at $8,820 (horizontal line).

However, the cryptocurrency is yet to exit the falling channel, represented by trendlines connecting June 26 and Aug. 6 highs and July 17 and Sept. 26 lows.

A UTC close above the upper edge of the bearish channel, currently at $9,750, would imply a resumption of the rally from lows near $4,100 seen on April 2 and put the cryptocurrency on the path to re-test of the high of $13,880 hit in June.

Put simply, a channel breakout is needed to confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Hot air balloons image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• A high-volume range breakdown seen on the daily chart suggests scope for test of a long-term moving average at $7,200. A violation there would expose another major average support at $7,000.
• A corrective bounce above resistance at $7,534 could be seen before a deeper drop, as the intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions.
• A lagging indicator suggests BTC may bottom out in the range of $7,000 to $7,200.
• A UTC close above the Oct. 21 high of $8,352 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Long-term bitcoin price support at $7,200 may be put to test for the first time in six months, likely after a minor price bounce.

The crypto market leader fell by $500 to $7,500 during the U.S. trading hours on Wednesday, confirming a downside break of the recent trading range of $7,800 to $8,400.

Prices went on to hit a five-month low of $7,293 before printing a UTC close at $7,470 – down 6.92 percent on the day, according to Bitstamp data. That’s the biggest single-day drop since Sept. 24, when prices had declined by 11.83%.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The range breakdown indicates the sell-off from highs above $10,000 seen on Sept. 23 has resumed and prices could test support at $7,200 – the 100-period moving average on the three-day chart. That MA line was last put to test at the end of April.

The drop to the key support, however, may be preceded by a minor corrective bounce, as the intraday chart indicators are reporting oversold conditions.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 46 percent loss from 2019’s high of $13,880 registered on June 26.  That said, the cryptocurrency is still reporting a 100 percent gain on a year-to-date basis and is the best performing asset of 2019.

Daily and 3-day charts

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

Wednesday’s range breakdown (above left) is backed by an uptick in trading volumes to the highest level since Sept. 26 and looks to have legs.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dived below the ascending trendline, invalidating the bullish divergence confirmed on Oct. 6. A failed bullish divergence is widely considered as a powerful bearish signal.

As a result, the cryptocurrency appears on track to test the three-day chart 100-candle MA at $7,200 (above right). A violation there would expose the 200-candle MA, currently located just below $7,000.

The sell-off may stall around the aforementioned crucial support levels, as the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) are about to produce a death cross – a bearish, but a lagging indicator, which trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in April 2018 and September 2015.

Hourly and 4-hour charts

The RSIs on the hourly and 4-hour charts are reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print. So, a corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

The former support-turned-resistance of $7,714 (Sept. 30 low) could come into play if the immediate resistance at $7,534 (horizontal line on hourly) is scaled in the next 24 hours.

The outlook would turn bullish if and when prices rise above the Oct. 20 high of $8,352, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup on the daily chart.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

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