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Netflix vs. Roku: Which Streaming Stock Is the Better Buy? 5-Star Analyst Answers

6 years 6 months ago

While the coronavirus’ impact on the market has meant, in most cases, a complete meltdown of companies’ value, there have been a number of outliers among the decimated names. Typically, these are the companies that offer the public and investors alike a product or service needed in such times. While no one would argue streaming is as important as a vaccine, some companies providing services in this field have held steady against the overall market’s decline.

Netflix (NFLX), for example. Against the run of play, the streaming giant is up by 10% year-to-date, bolstered by a narrative which suggests more people staying at home equates to more revenue.

But 5-star Needham analyst Laura Martin has been arguing the case against Netflix for a while now and the streaming leader’s durability in such difficult times hasn’t changed her mind. In fact, the analyst rates Netflix shares an Underperform (i.e. Sell). (To watch Martin’s track record, click here)

Martin laid out her case, noting, “We worry about NFLX's balance sheet and potential liquidity woes based on our projection of $2-4B of negative FCF in 2020, coupled with high-yield bond market volatility. Additionally, Antenna data through March 1, 2020 show that NFLX's US net sub adds have been negative for most of the past 12 months, due to price increases and new SVOD competition.”

Instead, martin suggests investors take a look at the streaming universe’s new player, Roku (ROKU). The alternative choice is an interesting one, as lately the phrase “the new Netflix” has been thrown about whenever Roku is in the vicinity.

Unlike Netflix, though, Roku hasn’t been immune to the virus’s impact. Following last year’s run, in which its share price skyrocketed by almost 350%, at the turn of the year, Roku stock was already showing signs of fatigue. Over the last month, alongside the rest of the market, the share price has shed 27% of its value. So, what makes Roku preferable to Netflix, according to Martin?

First of all, Martin argues, Roku should be viewed as an “aggregation platform, similar to iOS and Android in mobile and Facebook in social.” Following up this bold assertion with the claim, “Winning aggregators typically benefit from winner-take-most economics.” No prizes for guessing who Martin thinks the winner here will be.

The analyst also counts a number of reasons why Roku is her streaming player of choice among the two. These include a more favorable valuation, alongside relative balance sheet strength. Additionally, Roku’s role as an aggregator platform provides it with relative pricing power and a preferable competitive position. Martin also adds, that in contrast to Netflix’s fixed monthly fee, Roku’s revenue is tied to viewing growth, with advertising as its primary source of income.

Martin concludes, “Although hours streamed are growing during COVID-19, we prefer Roku, which has a volume-based revenue model (ie, advertising CPMs) based on viewing time rather than NFLX, which charges the same price regardless of hours viewed. Additionally, Nielsen reports 88mm US connected-TV homes with at least one SVOD service. Since NFLX has 61mm paying US subs (ie, 70% of 88mm), we prefer Roku, which has an installed base of 37mm US homes, suggesting more upside potential.”

Martin, therefore, reiterates a Buy rating on Roku, along with a price target of $200. This conveys the analyst’s confidence in Roku surging by an extra 123% in the next twelve months.

So, where does the Street stand on the two streaming players?

Netflix gets a Moderate Buy rating from the analyst consensus, based on 23 Buys, 6 Holds and 3 Sells. Shares in NFLX sell for $357.32, and the $382.90 average price target suggests a modest 7% upside potential. (See Netflix stock analysis on TipRanks)

As for Roku - 5 Buys, 3 Holds and 2 Sells, also add up to a Moderate Buy consensus rating. At $139.40, the Street sees further upside of 43%. Overall, Roku is clearly the winner here. (See Roku stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

TipRanks

Why Appian, MongoDB, and The Trade Desk Shares All Rose Today

6 years 6 months ago
What happened Shares of Appian (NASDAQ: APPN), MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB), and The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) all jumped on Tuesday. Each of these companies' stocks were up in the mid-double digits at one point before falling slightly. As of the market close, they were up 16%, 9%, a
The Motley Fool

Yum! Brands Expects Q1 Losses, Even Stronger Declines Through June

6 years 6 months ago
Restaurant company Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) announced today in an SEC filing that it expects moderate sales losses in the quarter ended March 31 and an even bigger plunge in the second quarter. Owner of major global brands such as Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC, and The Habit Burger
The Motley Fool

JPMorgan Chase Plans Hiring Freeze

6 years 6 months ago
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has ordered a large-scale hiring freeze across various departments of the company in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, Bloomberg reports.
The Motley Fool

Breakingviews - States have upper hand in health vs. economy row

6 years 6 months ago
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters Breakingviews) - In a health emergency, U.S. President Donald Trump doesn’t have the final word. With economic damage mounting due to the coronavirus, he may bring an end to federal social-distancing restrictions. But lifting curbs is mostly not
Reuters

Nike Keeps Growing Through Coronavirus Challenges

6 years 6 months ago
What happened Nike (NYSE: NKE) is having no trouble growing its business even as the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily affects some of its key selling markets. The footwear and sports apparel giant on Tuesday announced fiscal third-quarter earnings results that showed solid revenue
The Motley Fool

With One Day to Go Before Micron’s Earnings, this Bull Cuts Estimates

6 years 6 months ago

Have investors forgotten about Micron (MU)? Amid all the attention surrounding coronavirus, it’s hard to argue if it feels that way. But with the chip giant expected to release earnings after market close tomorrow, the spotlight will be back on Micron.

Ahead of the print, Susquehanna’s Mehdi Hosseini has been trimming estimates. Although, as the analyst notes, in the current climate it is hard to gauge earnings on a quarterly basis, the reduction is for earnings in FY20/21. The new targets are for EPS of $1.89/$4.39, down from the previous estimates of $2.26/$6.61.

Nevertheless, Hosseini reiterates a Buy rating on Micron shares, along with a price target of $85. The potential upside from current levels is an impressive 96%. (To watch Hosseini’s track record, click here)

The 4-star analyst said, “We expect MU's February-quarter results/May-quarter guide to meet our estimates (in-line with consensus) as supply chain disruption in China is expected to be offset by stronger ASPs. Nonetheless, we are using this opportunity to reduce August/November-quarter bit shipment/ASP assumptions to reflect weaker demand despite full recovery in the supply.”

Hosseini also argues the most important catalyst for the stock won’t be the February-quarter report, but rather “determining the extent of demand destruction” which won’t become clear until May. The analyst expects 2H CY20, in particular, to reflect the current problems and the revised estimates lay the ground for “a weaker demand environment.”

Although COVID-19’s impact in China will play its part in the current quarterly statement, the good news for Micron, weirdly enough, is its strong exposure to the giant from the far east. Huawei and Kingston make up roughly between 20-25% of its business, and together with “lean inventories among all memory manufacturers” and the fact Europe and North America have yet to probably feel the full force of coronavirus’ impact, the heavy exposure could come in handy as the year progresses. China is slowly recovering from the viral outbreak and getting back to normal. “We believe China exposure is now a good thing that could effectively provide MU with a cushion against weakening demand in the EU and North America regions,” Hosseini said.

The rest of the Street appears to echo Hosseini sentiment. As it has racked up 17 Buys and only 1 Hold, the consensus is unanimous: MU is a Strong Buy. Adding to the good news, the average price target of $69.34 could provide investors with gains in the shape of 58%, over the coming months. (See Micron stock analysis on TipRanks)

TipRanks

Curaleaf Posts 22% Revenue Gain in Q4, Announces Acquisition

6 years 6 months ago
Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF) had a busy day on Tuesday. After market hours, the marijuana company unveiled its fourth quarter of fiscal 2019 results, while earlier it announced an acquisition and updated investors on its business in the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus outbreak.
The Motley Fool

Dow Roars to Life With Best Day Since 1933

6 years 6 months ago
The Dow experienced a much-needed surge today, logging its best percentage gain since 1933. The blue-chip index surged toward the finish line today, as all signs point to a historic stimulus bill near agreement that would help buoy a floundering U.S. economy. The S&P 500
Schaeffer

Bandwidth Shares Cross Above 200 DMA

6 years 6 months ago
In trading on Tuesday, shares of Bandwidth Inc (Symbol: BAND) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $68.54, changing hands as high as $71.50 per share. Bandwidth Inc shares are currently trading up about 12.3% on the day. The chart below shows the one year performanc
BNK Invest
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