Shares of chip maker Intel (
NASDAQ:INTC
) are on a tear, rising over 57% year-to-date. Further, INTC
stock hit a new 52-week high of $40.84 on November 15 as five-star analyst Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold. While Rakesh has turned bullish, Wall Street analysts’ average price target suggests a pullback in INTC stock.
Let’s see why.
Analysts See Challenges Ahead
The rally in Intel stock is supported by the company’s solid financial performance throughout this year. It’s worth noting that Intel’s
third-quarter earnings exceeded analysts’ expectations and raised its outlook, signaling a continued improvement in its financials. Additionally, the anticipated rebound in the PC market and massive opportunities led by
AI (artificial intelligence) contribute to INTC stock’s bull case.
Looking ahead, Rakesh expects INTC to benefit from “new Server product launches and Foundry customer announcements.” However, Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya believes that the company’s margins will remain under pressure, driven by increased costs related to new products. The analyst lowered INTC’s price target to $32 from $35 and reiterated a Sell recommendation on October 26.
Further, Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari also maintained a Sell recommendation on Intel stock on October 27. The analyst expects Intel to lose market share in the traditional CPU market to Advanced Micro Devices (
NASDAQ:AMD
). On the other hand, TD Cowen analyst Matt Ramsay and KeyBanc analyst John Vinh reiterated a Hold recommendation on INTC stock following the Q3 earnings print last month.
What is the Stock Prediction for Intel?
Overall, Wall Street analysts remain sidelined on Intel stock. It has a Hold consensus rating based on five Buy, 18 Hold, and four Sell recommendations. Further, the
average INTC stock price target of $37.39 implies a downside potential of 7.93% from current levels.
Bottom Line
Intel stands to gain from the recovery of the PC market and the introduction of new products. Additionally, Intel Foundry Services is well-positioned to benefit from the opportunities in the AI market. However, concerns about potential market share losses to competitors and the recent upswing in its stock price could limit the upside potential.
Disclosure
In today's video, I discuss recent updates impacting Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Check out the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below.
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In today's video, I discuss recent updates affecting Intel (NASDAQ: INTC). Check out the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below.
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Chipmaker Qualcomm (
NASDAQ:
QCOM
) had a difficult year, owing to macroeconomic pressures weighing on consumer spending. However, with the global smartphone market on the mend, things are starting to look up for QCOM. Wall Street also remains hopeful of Qualcomm's future, given management's belief in stabilizing market dynamics. Also, AI-driven opportunities may improve Qualcomm's fundamentals in the coming years, which is why I am bullish on QCOM stock.
Macroeconomic Headwinds Strained Qualcomm’s Fiscal 2023
Qualcomm's success has relied on its innovative chipsets, particularly the Snapdragon series. These chipsets power a vast range of devices, from smartphones, tablets, and wearables to automotive systems.
However, Fiscal 2023 turned out to be not so positive for the chipmaker, led by a slowdown in smartphone sales. Rising inflation has put a damper on consumer spending on discretionary products such as electronics and smartphones. Its latest fourth-quarter Fiscal 2023 results were also gloomy, disappointing investors. The stock has gained a mere
18.2% YTD, which is not great compared to the massive gains its peers in the semiconductor industry have achieved so far in 2023.
In Q4, its revenue declined by 24% year-over-year to $8.7 billion, beating consensus estimates by $146 million. Meanwhile, earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter fell by 35% to $2.02, surpassing estimates by $0.11. For the full Fiscal year, revenue and earnings declined by 19% and 33%, respectively.
Notably, Qualcomm’s operations are distinguished by two segments: QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies), which represents its chip business, and QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing), which covers its licensing business. In Fiscal 2023, QCT accounted for about 85% of its total revenue.
Let’s break down its revenue for the QCT segment (chip sales). The market’s lukewarm demand for new smartphones led to a 22% decline in Handset chip sales in Fiscal 2023, while its IoT (Internet of Things) chip sales dropped 19.2% year-over-year. Qualcomm's Automotive chip sales, on the other hand, stood out with a 24% increase from Fiscal 2022.
As the automotive industry continues to evolve, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Digital Chassis remains an essential part of this digital transformation. In the Q4 earnings call, CEO Cristiano Renno Amon highlighted the company’s new long-term strategic deal with Amazon’s (
NASDAQ:
AMZN
) AWS (Amazon Web Services) "to enable automakers to integrate cloud technologies into their vehicle development life cycle.”
What’s more, Qualcomm is also a dividend stock that has a
dividend yield of 2.6%, significantly higher than the S&P 500’s (
SPX
) average yield of 1.6%. The company generated $9.8 billion in free cash flow in Fiscal 2023, out of which it used $3.5 billion to pay dividends and $3 billion to repurchase shares. It also ended Fiscal 2023 with a strong balance sheet with $11.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
Fiscal 2024 Could Turn Around QCOM's Fortunes
Going into 2024, according to
International Data Corporation, the global smartphone market is expected to recover by 4.5% year-over-year. This recovery could help boost demand for Qualcomm’s products.
While other chip makers like Nvidia (
NASDAQ:
NVDA
) and Advanced Micro Devices (
NASDAQ:
AMD
) are ramping up their AI efforts, Qualcomm is raising the stakes in the game as well.
In its annual Snapdragon Summit event in October, the company unveiled two new generative AI-integrated chips, the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 for smartphones and the Snapdragon X Elite for the personal computer (PC) market. For improved audio experiences, it also unveiled the AI-powered S7 and S7 Pro Gen 1 sound platforms.
Qualcomm’s efforts to stay current with the evolving tech industry by incorporating AI into all its products and services are positioning it for more growth. Furthermore, in the fourth quarter, Qualcomm also announced a deal with Apple (
NASDAQ:
AAPL
) to supply Snapdragon 5G Modem-RF Systems for smartphone launches from 2024-26.
Looking ahead, management sees signs of stabilization in the demand for 3G, 4G, and 5G handsets worldwide. Hence, the company now forecasts Q1 Fiscal 2024 revenue in the range of $9.1 billion to $9.9 billion and EPS between $2.25 and $2.45.
If Qualcomm meets the upper end of the guidance, that would mean 5% revenue and 3.4% earnings growth over the year-ago period. Along with an amazing sequential growth of 14% in revenue and 21.3% in earnings, it would also signal the global smartphone market's recovery. Meanwhile, analysts forecast revenue of $9.5 billion and EPS of $2.36 for Fiscal Q1 2024.
Although Qualcomm did not provide full-year guidance for Fiscal 2024, the outlook for the start of the fiscal year appears encouraging. Analysts foresee its revenue and earnings to show year-over-year growth of 5.5% and 9.3%, respectively. Currently, Qualcomm trades at 13.4 times its projected 2024 earnings. For a growth stock with AI capabilities, its valuation seems fair.
Is
Qualcomm a Buy, According to Analysts?
Following Qualcomm’s fourth-quarter results, TD Cowen analyst
Matt Ramsay reaffirmed his Buy rating on the stock with a target price of $145.00. The analyst finds Qualcomm's
successful foray into the PC space and its commanding presence in the Android handset market to be impressive. Additionally,
DZ Bank also upgraded QCOM stock to Buy from Hold, assigning a price target of $140.
Meanwhile, after QCOM's Q4 earnings, JPMorgan (
NYSE:
JPM
) analyst Samik Chatterjee now believes Qualcomm “
finally reported an end to the downward spiral” with its rosy outlook for Q1 Fiscal 2024. The analyst has a Buy rating on the stock and raised its price target from $135 to $140.
Out of the 21 analysts covering Qualcomm stock, 14 recommend a Buy, six recommend a Hold, and one recommends a Sell, giving the stock a Moderate Buy rating. The
average QCOM stock price target is $135.83, implying 7% upside potential over the next 12 months.
The Takeaway
Qualcomm still plays a pivotal role in shaping the future of technology as we delve deeper into the 5G, IoT, and AI era. Its relentless pursuit of innovation, coupled with its diverse product portfolio and improving market dynamics, may all contribute to stronger revenue and profit growth in the years to come. For this reason, I remain cautiously optimistic that good days are ahead for Qualcomm.
Disclosure
Fintel reports that on November 14, 2023, Roth MKM initiated coverage of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) with a Buy recommendation. Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 18.26% Upside
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