Last week, along with the market retracement, shares of online sports betting company DraftKings (DKNG) dropped by 20%. The plunge cannot detract from the fact that since going public through a reverse merger in April, the stock has still outperformed the market considerably – up by over 70% (and by 210% since the turn of the year including the period prior to the reverse merger when trading as Diamond Eagle).
Some company insiders took advantage of the rally by unloading their shares last week. A recent SEC filing showed that DraftKings founder and other top brass offloaded $596 million worth of shares on June 23. Selling after a massive rally makes sense, but the extent of the offloading is curious, nonetheless.
However, Rosenblatt analyst Bernie McTernan dismisses the short-term noise and implores investors to “own shares for the long-term bull case.”
“As the gambling industry in the US is emerging, we believe online players will take the dominant share and DKNG should be a leader. Near-term catalysts to own the stock now are the return of live sports and the potential acceleration of gambling legislation from COVID-19. In our bull case, we believe the stock can triple,” McTernan said confidently.
Driving McTernan’s bullish thesis is the differentiated approach to gambling in the US, a legalized market still “in its infancy.” In contrast to other countries, the industry’s physical footprint is negligible, with a very low count of physical gambling retail locations.
This, along with “ubiquitous access to the internet, and sophisticated mobile apps,” leads the analyst to believe “the US gambling market is going to be significantly more remote relative to more established markets.”
Data backs up McTernan’s theory. For example, according to DKNG’s Analyst Day presentation, online gambling revenue across the globe accounted for only 12% of total industry revenue in 2019. The figure has risen to 40% in the UK, but even that pales in comparison to the US’s primary established sports betting market, New Jersey, where 90% of revenue is generated online.
“We believe NJ is emblematic of how the relative market shares of online vs physical locations will play out,” McTernan added.
Further down the line, McTernan considers DKNG’s global opportunity. The analyst believes there is potential for DraftKings to penetrate established markets “with an aim of becoming the Spotify of online gambling.”
Accordingly, McTernan rates DKNG a Buy along with a $60 price target. This conveys the analyst’s belief shares could appreciate by a hefty 80% over the coming months. (To watch McTernan’s track record, click here)
Other analysts are bullish, too. DKNG's Strong Buy consensus rating is based on 1 Hold vs. a resounding 9 Buys. Meanwhile the $46.67 price target implies nearly 40% upside from current levels. (See DraftKings stock analysis on TipRanks)
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