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Aurora Cannabis Leap Frogs Canopy Growth as a Better Investment

6 years 4 months ago

For years now, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) and Canopy Growth (CGC) have traded in near lockstep based on the global growth potential of cannabis. The latest quarterly results set Aurora Cannabis a step ahead of their prime competitor in Canada.

Aurora Cannabis reported an exceptional turnaround quarter for March, but the stock has taken a hit following the weak Canopy Growth results at the end of May. Oddly, Aurora Cannabis now appears better positioned to thrive having already had to tighten their financial purse strings due to cash concerns.

Value Brand Shift

Canopy Growth called out a prime reason for their failure to hit revenue targets in the March quarter due to the market shift to value brands. Aurora Cannabis made this move to shift production towards the value brand Daily Special in early Q1.

For this reason, Aurora Cannabis saw recreational cannabis sales grow sequentially by C$8 million to C$42 million. Canopy Growth saw recreational cannabis slip by C$20 million to C$49 million. Canopy Growth was too busy focused on the struggling cannabis beverages startup and missed the recreational cannabis shift to more affordable products to compete against illegal weed.

Aurora Cannabis has already shown an ability to shift quicker than Canopy Growth. The latter is still going through a complete leadership change with executives from the liquor sector possibly not as familiar with cannabis.   

Focus, Focus, Focus

One of my biggest complaints about the Canadian cannabis LPs was the focus on global operations. The companies were going after massive markets in Canada, the U.S. and in Europe, Latin America, Australia and even Africa. The vast operations made little sense for companies trying to build new markets. Building market share in recreational cannabis in Canada and CBD in the U.S. was more than complicated enough for executive leaders to not need further operations in Germany, Columbia or Australia.

Aurora Cannabis made the decision in February to reduce operating costs by over 50% to below C$45 million per quarter. The company shifted out of most international locations with a focused shifted to Canada, U.S. and Germany.

The Canadian company has a singular focus on profitable growth now while Canopy Growth still appears to be investing in money losing businesses for a payoff in out years. Aurora Cannabis now has the upper hand here with a path to EBITDA profits in the September quarter while Canopy Growth pulled guidance for the rest of the year while generating substantial EBITDA losses in the March quarter.

C$27 Price Target

What would you tell someone if they were to ask you, “Should I buy Aurora Cannabis stock right now?” For Cantor analyst Pablo Zuanic the answer is quite clear — the analyst sees the stock as a plant that keeps blossoming.

"ACB is a company with a credible turnaround plan, not going bust, and with little further dilution risk. ACB is a close #2 in Canada rec to Canopy Growth; it is #1 in Canada med with share north of 40%; and it has reconfigured its international business, but its opportunities are not less than those of peers," Zuanic noted.

Wieser rates ACB a Buy along with a C$27 price target, which implies nearly 50% upside from current levels.

Takeaway

The key investor takeaway is that the valuation equation for Aurora Cannabis is far more compelling here as the market has pushed the stock back down below $14. The stock has a far better valuation at $1.5 billion with FY21 sales estimates near $300 million while Canopy Growth trades at $6.3 billion with sales estimates near $400 million.

Aurora Cannabis is a far better deal, if an investor can purchase the stock closer to my $10 target. Regardless, the company has leap frogged Canopy Growth as the better investment due to their improved financials.

To find good ideas for cannabis stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclosure: No position.

As Uncertainty Remains, Tread Carefully With Norwegian Cruise Line Stock

6 years 4 months ago

Planning ahead in 2020 is turning out to be a fruitless task. Especially if you happen to be a cruise line eagerly waiting to resume operations.

On June 16, struggling cruise operator Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) laid any hope of a summer at sea to rest. The company extended suspensions due to fears over the coronavirus’ potential to wreak havoc on board its cruise ships. Previously, schedules were suspended through July, but now virtually all cruises between August 1 and September 30 have also been cancelled. Some have been suspended for even longer, until the end of October.

For Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Woronka, it is becoming clear “the summer months (typically the high season for cruising) are slipping away in terms of a potential restart period.”

This begs the questions: what conditions are required for “even limited sailing activity to resume?” Or what kind of passenger experience will such a cruise provide?

“Cruises are inherently social in nature and there are legitimate questions about the quality of the experience if physical distancing is required,” Woronka noted.

Additionally, such a diluted experience could leave a bitter taste among passengers who will then be reluctant to book again when normal conditions resume.

All of these facets lead Woronka to believe that until the elephant in the room is dealt with, cruise lines might not be going anywhere.

“We believe there is likely to be enhanced focus around the question of whether large scale cruising can (or should) realistically resume before there are additional medical breakthroughs on the treatment and/or prevention of COVID-19. To that end, there isn’t necessarily a direct read-through to the stocks,” Woronka stated.

To this end, Woronka maintains a Hold rating on NCLH shares. The analyst also has an $11 price target, implying the share price could decline by a further 43%. (To watch Woronka’s track record, click here)

Overall, based on 8 Buys, 5 Holds and 1 Sell, the analyst consensus currently rates NCLH a Moderate Buy. However, the average price target of $16.55 suggests possible downside of 14%. (See NCLH stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Carnival Names a New COO

6 years 4 months ago
There's a new name on the chief operations officer's (COO) cabin at Carnival (NYSE: CCL)(NYSE: CUK). The beleaguered cruise ship operator announced Friday that it has tapped Josh Weinstein for the position. His appointment is effective immediately.

Amazon Could Be Worth $5,000 Long-Term, Says 5-Star Analyst

6 years 4 months ago

Amazon (AMZN) shares clocked an all-time high last week by reaching $2,722.35. According to Needham analyst Laura Martin, that milestone will soon be left in the dust as the all-conquering Amazon is heading towards $3,200.

As it happens, $3,200 is only Martin’s short-term goal. Over time, Martin reckons Amazon stock could be worth up to $5,000 per share, based on what the 5-star analyst calls "Amazon’s hidden value multiplier."

There are several of these. One is a TAM (total addressable market) expansion multiplier, based on “AMZN's track record of TAM-expanding decisions that elongate its growth runway, drive higher profitability, and lower shareholder risk via revenue-stream diversification.”

This comes down to Amazon’s knack for adding “enormous” new markets, or “areas of investment” that could not be seen “3-5 years prior to the investments.”

Another aspect of Martin’s bullish thesis concerns the way we view Amazon. Referring to the giant as merely an e-commerce company, whose focus is online retail, is a fallacy. Dig a little deeper and Amazon is, in fact, a services company.

“Over the past 5 years, AMZN’s Net Services Sales have grown from 28% of AMZN’s total sales to 43%. Net Services Sales have a 19% operating margin compared with 3% for AMZN’s Product Sales,” Martin said.

The analyst values Amazon’s media businesses at roughly $500 billion, amounting to 38% of Amazon’s overall value, while AWS, at $560 billion, is worth even more.

Add to this the ecosystem value multiplier, which refers to the fact that any business operating under the Amazon umbrella is worth 1.5x more on account of the incremental revenue generated by Amazon’s “data superiority, scale economics, and brand franchises.”

And that $5,000 long-term price target?

Martin explains, “We calculate that today’s share price embeds 10% asset growth at a 10% ROIC. Holding ROIC constant, our work finds that if AMZN grows its asset base by at least 20%, its economic profit and share price should double to $5,000/share.”

For now, Martin rates AMZN a Buy along with, as mentioned, a $3,200 price target. Investors will be pocketing a 21% gain, should Martin’s thesis play out over the coming months. (To watch Martin’s track record, click here)

Overall, there aren’t many Amazon detractors among the analyst community. Amazon's Strong Buy consensus rating is based on 1 Sell and 2 Holds vs 38 Buys. The average price target is more conservative than Martin’s, and at $2,746.78, implies upside potential of 4%. (See Amazon stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

‘Satoshi Was a Black Woman’: Blockchain Entrepreneurs Talk Financial Inclusion on Juneteenth

6 years 4 months ago

Racial diversity and financial inclusion are good for cryptocurrency and blockchain – and the industry has work to do.

That was the overarching conclusion of a virtual Juneteenth event put together by Cleve Mesidor, founder of the National Policy Network of Women of Color in Blockchain. 

Juneteenth is the celebration of June 19, 1865, when the last group of enslaved African Americans were made aware of the Emancipation Proclamation that U.S. President Abraham Lincoln had signed two years earlier. 

Related: Why Crypto Matters for Financial Inclusion, Feat. Celo’s Marek Olszewski

While America’s education system has left many ignorant of the origins of Juneteenth, there has been a revived interest in turning the day into a national holiday after protests sprung up around the world in response to the May 25 police killing of an unarmed Black man named George Floyd.

In a wide-ranging conversation Friday, panelists at the event said crypto has the potential to allow citizens to opt out of what they described as a racist financial system on Wall Street. That said, the panelists added, Black people and people of color must be part of the development of the technology for that to happen.

Read more: Bitcoin Is a Way to Repair Economic Injustice: Author Isaiah Jackson

Isaiah Jackson, founder of KRBE Digital Assets Group and author of Bitcoin & Black America, said he believes that Black investment in digital assets would create a more resilient system than Black Wall Street, a Black business district that was burned down by white mobs during the Tulsa race massacre of 1921.

Related: Libra Minus Facebook: Why Celo Is 2020’s Buzzy Token Project

“You can’t burn down cryptocurrency and blockchain technology,” Jackson said. “I want to encourage everyone to stay vigilant and make sure you start to move your money and savings out of this failing system. … We need to make sure we use censorship-resistant and scarce-money systems such as bitcoin.”

Sinclair Skinner, the co-founder of pan-African bitcoin remittance firm BitMari, agreed, saying the ethos of bitcoin and the ethos of the Black community are aligned.

“We say that Satoshi is Black,” Skinner said. “But Satoshi was probably a Black woman because a man would have never been able to walk away and not take credit.”

More work needed

Despite crypto’s potential, however, the industry is not immune to the same societal ills that have affected the broader world, Skinner said.

“Blockchain is full of racists,” he said. “It’s just like the rest of society.”

In the fight for venture capital, blockchain enthusiasts should remember that cryptocurrency entrepreneurs and Black founders face the same issues – being turned away for being different, Mesidor said.

In turn, entrepreneurs should choose investors that have diverse funds, said Jalak Jobanputra, founding partner of Future\Perfect Ventures, an early-stage fund investing in blockchain technology and machine learning.

“We have to make sure that diverse voices are represented unlike what happened with the internet 20 years ago when it was really created by one demographic for one demographic,” Jobanputra said.

Read more: How an Art Collective Is Using Blockchain to Protest Police Brutality

One source of funding that crypto entrepreneurs could be tapping more is Black family offices, said Genevieve Leveille, CEO of AgriLedger, a U.K.-based blockchain firm trying to ensure pay equity for farmers.

“We are going to a technology which is very nascent and many people do not clearly see yet the opportunities,” she said. “There are plenty of Black family offices and we should be tapping into that network.”

Crypto is also another way that Black entrepreneurs can achieve economic equality, said Jomari Peterson, a Ph.D. student at Carnegie Mellon University focused on empowering underrepresented communities through microlending and gaming.

“We cannot wait until it’s too late and those systems are already around us,” Peterson said.

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