Nasdaq News
Novavax (NVAX): Next Stop, $150?
For the biotech sector, volatility is nothing new. Stocks can surge or crash depending on regulatory approval or rejection. The same is true following the release of encouraging or disappointing clinical data.
That being said, vaccine developer Novavax’s (NVAX) recent spectacular rally is on another level. The stock surged by another 63% on May 12, cumulatively accruing 921% worth of gains in 2020.
The latest share price appreciation came after it was announced that the coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) will commit up to $388 million to further the development of Novavax’s vaccine candidate against COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), NVX-CoV2373. The investment is the CEPI’s biggest to date, and follows up its initial $4 million grant to Novavax, which now seems miniscule in comparison.
In tandem with setting the process of clinical trials in motion (with Phase 1/2 trial data expected by July), part of the funding will go towards ramping up production at various locations around the globe, with a target of matching the largest pharma vaccine developers’ production capacity.
Based on Novavax’s vaccine track record, Ladenburg analyst Michael Higgins is confident in the outcome, and predicts the Phase 1/2 results “will prove to be safe.” The results are a key component of Novavax’s rNPV (risk-adjusted net present value) as the data will have an impact on the “scale up activities.”
Accordingly, Higgins reiterated a Buy rating on Novavax shares, while boosting his price target from $38 to $50. Higgins wrote that the increased price target reflects his "continued confidence in the successful completion of development and global approval of NVX-CoV2373, with an increased estimate for the procurement of this vaccine in 2021, from 100M to 300M doses, at $10/dose, for a ~3% share of global vaccine consumption, with our continued assumption for a $5 CGS/dose." (To watch Higgins’ track record, click here)
Overall, Novavax gets 100% support from the Street, as all 5 analysts tracked over the last three months rate the vaccine player a Buy. With an average price target of $45.60, the analyst fraternity projects upside potential of 19%. (See Novavax stock analysis on TipRanks)
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