In times of uncertainty, investors will often look toward the relative safety of companies known to have earned a spot in Warren Buffett's portfolio. Often considered to be one of the greatest capital allocators ever, Buffett has used his investing prowess to parlay a struggling
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) faces more challenges than it has in over a decade with its biggest supplier (China) facing uncertainty and artificial intelligence presenting a new threat. Travis Hoium asks the questions investors should be thinking about in the video below.
The tech industry has been working through a glut of PC (personal computer) and smartphone inventories since the second half of 2022. Following a massive upgrade cycle fueled by the work-from-home movement in late 2020 through 2021, the chip shortage loosened up last year just in
It's hard to remember the last time Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
) stock had this many intriguing catalysts on the horizon. With the ongoing services push and the VR headset likely a few quarters away, the company seems well-positioned to effectively leverage innovation to plow through a coming recession.
Undoubtedly, all the hype surrounding
the Metaverse has faded significantly over the past year (it's all about generative
AI and
ChatGPT these days), with the value of metaverse real estate taking a massive hit to the chin.
Though I'm not impressed with the current state of Meta Platforms' (
NASDAQ:META
) metaverse, I believe it's too soon to dismiss the potential of the Metaverse and the rise of
virtual and augmented reality as some sort of bubble.
As Apple moves closer to unveiling its much-anticipated headset, low expectations could set the stage for something truly delightful. As such, I remain bullish, even as Apple stock continues its march to new highs.
Meta's Metaverse Has Some Questioning VR's Future
As Meta progresses with its "
year of efficiency," its ambitious metaverse efforts will probably take a backseat. Undoubtedly, Meta hasn't been able to onboard users at the rate of other emerging technologies (like ChatGPT). Last year, former Oculus top boss Palmer Luckey slammed Meta's metaverse as "not good" and "not fun." Such comments are discouraging but not a sign that the Metaverse is going nowhere.
There are many reasons for the Metaverse's relatively sluggish start. The high price of admission with premium headsets, the lack of a "killer" app, and a less-than-impressive look and feel are likely what's holding back the Metaverse from having its iPhone or ChatGPT moment.
Over the coming years, it will be interesting to see if Apple's take on the Metaverse will bring the Metaverse hype back to where it was in 2021. At this juncture, though, it seems like investors have tempered their expectations. That's a good thing for Apple as it puts the finishing touches on its next big thing.
These days, the Metaverse is easy to dismiss as a nascent technology that may not be able to "take off" anytime in the near future. It's always difficult to gauge when such an emerging technology has its big moment.
Currently, I believe it's hardware that's holding back truly next-generation VR and AR experiences. As many VR users may know, it's too easy to get nauseated by a VR experience, especially on cheaper, lower-end devices with lower frame rates on lower-resolution panels.
Meta has a high-end Oculus Quest Pro headset for $1,499.99, fully equipped with the latest and greatest hardware. Still, reviews have been mixed, with some feeling that the device has launched too early in the game. Just how early remains the billion-dollar question!
For Meta, being too early to the Metaverse race could carry its fair share of risks as Apple and other potential rivals look to learn from Meta's mistakes and triumphs. Indeed, being a first-mover isn't always what it's cracked up to be, at least in the world of nascent tech.
As higher-end headsets get less bulky and more capable with every release, it's hard to imagine the Metaverse slowly fading into the background anytime soon. Yes, the hype got out of hand in 2021, but with reset expectations, the Metaverse still seems like one of the trends (along with AI) to keep tabs on as an investor.
Apple's Expertise Could Help VR and AR Take Center Stage Again
As Apple looks to make a splash in mixed reality with a headset, it must find the right balance between cost and performance. Fortunately, the firm has excelled at providing a good mix of options with its iPhone hardware. The "good, better, best" hardware tiers could translate well into new hardware categories.
Unlike most other firms, Apple's lowest-end tier doesn't compromise when it comes to the capabilities of the hardware. It may lack a cutting-edge feature exclusive to "Pro" models, with lower-quality materials used (let's say aluminum over stainless steel). However, in terms of value, Apple still offers an exceptional experience for those on a budget.
Even a low-tier device needs to deliver a mind-blowing experience when it comes to mixed reality. Otherwise, some may dismiss the VR or AR as "not yet ready."
If truly competent hardware to power incredible virtual experiences isn't here yet, it's probably very close. Apple's Silicon chips can deliver truly ground-breaking performance without being a sink on power.
Apple's M-series chips, rumored to be included in the coming headset, could help make the augmented or virtual experiences we dream about a reality. That said, there's one caveat: such a premium headset will cost a considerable sum.
According to a report from
The Information, such a high-end headset could cost as much as $3,000. That's double the price of Meta's Quest Pro.
Of course, it'd be nice to allow the average consumer to experience genuinely immersive virtual experiences at a low price point. However, in the early stages, it seems like only those with fat wallets will be able to get an early glimpse of truly next-generation mixed reality.
Is AAPL Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, AAPL stock comes in as a Strong Buy. Out of 29 analyst ratings, there are 23 Buys, five Holds, and one Sell recommendation.
The
average Apple stock price target is $171.16, implying upside potential of 3.6%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $107.00 per share to a high of $205.00 per share.
The Bottom Line on Apple Stock
In due time, high-caliber headset hardware will get cheaper. As it does, the floodgates will gradually open in the Metaverse market. Unlike ChatGPT's adoption, which skyrocketed to the moon in what seemed like an instant, broader adoption of headsets could take many years. As Apple looks to unveil its headset, I'd look for the adoption rate to accelerate.
Disclosure
It’s well-known that emerging markets have underperformed U.S. markets in recent years. The
S&P 500 (
SPX)
and
Nasdaq (
NDX)
boast annualized returns of roughly 16% and 17%, respectively, over the past three years. Therefore, it’s a tall order for other markets to keep up with these major U.S. indices. However, there are some diamonds in the rough that have bucked the trend. In fact, while it doesn’t receive much attention, the
iShares Saudi Arabia ETF (
NYSEARCA:KSA)
has quietly posted a scintillating annualized return of nearly 20% over the past three years, outpacing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
KSA has even vastly outperformed the broader emerging markets-focused
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (
NYSEARCA:EEM)
, which has returned about 7% on an annualized basis over the same time frame. It also still has plenty of long-term potential ahead of it.
What is KSA ETF?
KSA is a $913 million iShares ETF from BlackRock (
NYSE:BLK
) that seeks to “track the investment results of a broad-based index composed of Saudi Arabian equities,” according to the ETF's fact sheet. As you may have guessed, the ticker derives from "Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," the country's official name.
While ETFs can be used to diversify one’s holdings or to invest in a sector as a whole instead of a single stock, they can also be used to gain exposure to markets that most investors would otherwise have difficulty accessing. This ETF is a good example of that, as it gives U.S. investors (and non-Saudi investors in general) a convenient way to gain access to the Saudi market, which has historically been closed off to foreign investors.
More Than Just Oil
When most people think of the Saudi Arabian economy, they obviously think of oil, which makes sense as Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest oil producer. Further, the oil company Saudi Aramco is the third-most valuable company in the world with a market cap of $1.92 trillion, trailing only Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
) and Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
).
While oil is clearly still the key cog of the Saudi economy, there is a lot more to this market than just oil. In fact, energy isn’t even the largest sector held by the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF -- financials take the top spot with a weighting of over 40% (as of the end of Q1 2023).
Banks like Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi National Bank are the fund’s top two holdings, with weightings of 13% and 9.6%, respectively. In fact, banks make up six of the ETF’s top 10 holdings. These banks benefit from a zero-interest deposit base as Islamic law dissuades individuals from collecting interest on loans, so they benefit from rising interest rates worldwide as they can allocate assets into interest-bearing assets but do not have to pay higher rates to their depositors.
The materials sector takes up 21% of the KSA ETF, and all other sectors, including energy, have single-digit percentage weightings. Below, you’ll find an overview of
KSA’s top holdings using TipRanks' Holdings tool.
The ETF holds 111 positions, meaning that it covers a wide swath of the Saudi market. The top 10 holdings make up nearly 60% of assets, so it isn’t as diversified as it may look. That said, an ETF like this is more of a concentrated bet on a specific emerging market, so I don’t see that as necessarily being a problem here.
In addition to this prominent banking sector, Saudi Arabia has been working diligently to diversify its economy beyond energy in recent years under its ‘Vision 2030’ plan. Saudi Arabia is also trying to modernize its capital markets and increase access to them, which should further benefit Saudi stocks. IPOs are increasing in frequency -- recent examples include Elm, a fintech company, and Americana Restaurants, which owns the franchises of Yum! Brands restaurants like Pizza Hut and KFC in the region.
Under Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is becoming well-known for making large investments outside of the oil industry, such as purchasing Newcastle United in the English Premier League as well as launching the upstart LIV Golf tour, which has pried quite a few high-profile golfers away from the more established PGA Tour.
Other high-profile investments include a $45 billion investment in the Softbank Vision Fund, a major venture capital fund led by famed technology investor Masa Son and a large stake in Uber (
NYSE:UBER
).
Of course, even with this significant effort to diversify, it should be noted that oil still plays a massive role in the overall Saudi economy. When oil prices are up, this is good for the Saudi economy as a whole and drives growth in these other sectors like banking, construction, and consumer discretionary. Conversely, when oil is down, this is a net negative for the rest of the economy.
A Demographic Boost
Saudi Arabia is also intriguing from a demographic perspective. It has a very young population, with a median age of under 30. It has experienced a population boom in recent decades, and its population continues to grow at 1.6% per year.
Additionally, more women are beginning to enter the workforce as reforms take hold. This means that Saudi Arabia could benefit from a strong workforce and growing demand in the future when many developed nations are going to be dealing with aging populations and shrinking workforces.
A Relatively High Expense Ratio but Reasonable Valuation
One negative about KSA is that with an expense ratio of 0.74%, the fees are relatively high, but this is a more difficult market to access, and there aren’t many alternatives for interested investors. Furthermore, it’s not out-of-line with other country-specific ETFs that focus on markets that are more off the beaten path.
For comparison, the much larger aforementioned EEM ETF has an expense ratio of 0.68%. These types of ETFs generally have higher expense ratios than investing in an S&P 500 ETF.
KSA stock also pays a dividend, and it currently yields approximately 1.9%.
One other factor to note is that in terms of valuation, KSA’s holdings are in an interesting place after the fund’s impressive three-year run. With an average P/E ratio of just under 16, they are cheaper than the average multiple for the S&P 500 (currently 23.6), but they are more expensive than emerging markets as a whole -- EEM’s holdings have an average price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2.
Investor Takeaway
Based on its strong recent performance and the potential for further growth as the economy diversifies and the population and workforce expand, Saudi Arabia presents an appealing long-term investment opportunity. KSA gives investors a convenient way to unlock access to this market.
Disclosure
Sometimes when investors (myself included) see an ETF like the
Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (
NYSEARCA:XYLD)
yielding 12.4%, their immediate inclination is to hit the Buy button in their brokerage account and start collecting those massive dividends. However, this article will explain why buying a simple, low-cost S&P 500 (
SPX
) ETF like the
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (
NYSEARCA:VOO)
or the
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (
NYSEARCA:SPY)
, even though they each sport much smaller
dividend yields of 1.6%, is likely a more fruitful strategy over the long run.
What Does XYLD ETF Do?
XYLD is a $2.5 billion ETF from Global X that, according to Global X, uses a “‘covered call’ or ‘buy-write’ strategy, in which the fund buys the stocks in the S&P 500 Index and ‘writes’ or ‘sells’ corresponding call options on the same index.” Global X states that the fund “seeks to generate income through covered call writing, which historically produces higher yields in periods of volatility.”
Essentially, XYLD is selling covered calls against the positions it owns and collects options premiums to generate additional income and achieve this high yield. This isn’t a bad strategy per se, and it certainly generates a high yield, as evidenced by
XYLD’s 12.4% yield. Global X has a number of ETFs that employ this same strategy using other major indices, such as the
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (
NASDAQ:QYLD)
and the
Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (
NASDAQ:RYLD)
.
XYLD has a consistent track record as a dividend ETF -- it has made monthly payouts for nine years in a row. Furthermore, XYLD deserves credit for growing its annual dividend payout substantially over the last few years. After reducing its annual payout from $3.15 in 2018 to $2.79 in 2019, the dividend has come roaring back, with annual payouts of $3.11 in 2020, $4.58 in 2021, and $5.29 in 2022.
XYLD is a diversified ETF -- as an S&P 500 ETF, it holds 505 positions, and its top 10 holdings account for under 30% of assets. Below, you’ll find a comprehensive overview of XYLD stock's top holdings using TipRanks’ holdings screen.
XYLD’s top holdings mirror that of the S&P 500 itself. Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
) is the top holding with a 7.3% weighting, followed by Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
) with a 6.5% weighting.
The rest of the top 10 consists of mega-cap tech names like Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
), Nvidia (
NASDAQ:NVDA
), both share classes of Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOG
) (
NASDAQ:GOOGL
), Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
), and Meta Platforms (
NASDAQ:META
), plus non-tech mega caps Berkshire Hathaway (
NYSE:BRK.B
), UnitedHealth Group (
NYSE:UNH
) and ExxonMobil (
NYSE:XOM
).
This is a strong collection of blue-chip stocks, and you’ll notice that they collectively boast strong
Smart Scores. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Tesla, and UnitedHealth Group all have Smart Scores of 8 out of 10 or above, equivalent to an Outperform rating based on TipRanks' proprietary system.
XYLD stock itself enjoys a strong Smart Score of 8 out of 10 and screens positively on other factors that TipRanks monitors, like Blogger Sentiment and Crowd Wisdom.
Additionally, the analyst community has a relatively favorable outlook on XYLD. It has a Moderate Buy consensus rating from analysts, and the
average XYLD stock price target of $46.31 implies 13.8% upside potential.
Of the 6,317 analyst ratings on XYLD, 57.81% are Buys, 36.57% are Holds, and 5.62% are Sells.
One Negative About XYLD to Consider
Between this strong collection of holdings, monthly payout, and 12.4% yield, XYLD certainly has its appeal to income investors. However, one thing that investors should note is that selling covered calls against these positions will cap some of XYLD’s upside in an environment where the S&P 500 is performing well, so you are more or less making a partial tradeoff between yield and capital appreciation.
Furthermore, there’s another factor investors should consider before jumping in based on this mouth-watering yield.
XYLD's Long-Term Performance vs. SPY and VOO
XYLD has posted a very respectable annualized total return (capital appreciation plus reinvested dividends) of 11.26% over the past three years, so it is certainly not a long-term loser or an investment that has lost money. However, believe it or not, based on total return, this complex strategy has actually trailed simply investing in the S&P 500 through a vanilla strategy like the aforementioned Vanguard S&P 500 ETF or SPDR S&P 500 ETF over the same time frame.
That’s because the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF have both returned an even more impressive 15.4% on an annualized basis over the past three years.
Going out to a five-year time horizon, the gap in performance becomes more pronounced. Over the past five years, XYLD has had an annualized total return of about 5.1%, while VOO and SPY have returned 10.9% and 10.8%, respectively, more than doubling the total return of the Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF. While investors didn't lose money, there was a significant opportunity cost here over the past decade.
I will give XYLD credit as its high yield helped it to outperform the plain S&P 500 ETFs in 2022 when it lost 12.1% versus losses of 18.2% for VOO and SPY. However, zoom out, and you'll see that just a few months into 2023, VOO and SPY are back on top with identical losses of 5.3% versus a loss of 7.2% for XYLD now that the broader market is rebounding.
See below for
a chart comparing the performance of XYLD, VOO, and SPY over the last three years using TipRanks’ ETF Comparison Tool. (Note that this chart is cumulative rather than annualized and that the chart line for SPY covers that of VOO due to their near-identical performance).
Investor Takeaway
Over the years, despite its more exotic strategy, XYLD has trailed the simple strategies of the S&P 500 ETFs like VOO and SPY. What’s more, XYLD investors are paying much more in fees for this performance (or underperformance) than investors of VOO or SPY. XYLD’s expense ratio of 0.6% is more than six times higher than SPY’s investor-friendly 0.09% expense ratio and an incredible 20 times higher than VOO’s minuscule 0.03% expense ratio.
See below for a comparison of fees using TipRank’s ETF Comparison Tool.
The holdings of VOO and SPY are nearly identical to those of XYLD, just without the layer of complexity added in, so an investor in those ETFs is still getting exposure to the same group of blue-chip holdings with strong Smart Scores.
Ultimately, the double-digit yield and monthly payout of XYLD are tempting, especially for income investors. However, to build a larger overall portfolio with better total returns, investors can likely benefit from keeping it simple and investing in either VOO or SPY.
Disclosure
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) make attractive investments as leaders of their respective industries. These companies operate in vastly different areas of consumer goods, with perhaps the only overlap being their participation in streaming. However,
Fintel reports that on April 13, 2023,
Credit Suisse
maintained
coverage of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) with
a Outperform recommendation.
Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 8.49% Upside
Fintel reports that on April 13, 2023,
Canaccord Genuity
maintained
coverage of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) with
a Buy recommendation.
Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 8.49% Upside
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