Tech stocks roared back, wrapping up the first six months with massive gains. The prospect of less aggressive interest rate hikes in the future, moderation in the inflation rate, and the grand entrance of Generative
AI (Artificial Intelligence) are behind investors’ buoyant mood. While the economy still exhibits weakness and valuations appear rich, the recovery in cloud computing and AI-led opportunities indicate that the bull run in tech could sustain in the second half of 2023.
While the sector is expected to benefit from secular trends, investors should note that there could be select buying opportunities across the tech landscape in the second half of this year. But before we move ahead, let’s look at the recent price performance of technology stocks.
Tech Stocks – The Stellar 1H Price Performance
Contrary to the fears of recession and weak end-market demand, the buzz around AI led Nvidia's (
NASDAQ:NVDA
) stock to
attain $1 trillion in market cap. Meanwhile, shares of Meta Platforms (
NASDAQ:META
) are up about 145% year-to-date, thanks to the implementation of deep cost-cutting measures and growing momentum in its products and platforms.
At the same time, Amazon's (
NASDAQ:AMZN
) stock has gained over 55%, reflecting the easing of the inflationary environment, cost-cutting initiatives, and an expected recovery in its AWS (Amazon Web Services) segment.
Apple's (
NASDAQ:AAPL
) stock grew about 48% due to the momentum in Services revenue and easing supply-chain headwinds. Meanwhile, Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
) and Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOGL
)(
NASDAQ:GOOG
) stocks also defied the weak general market trend and have gained 42% and 38, respectively, on a year-to-date basis.
Thanks to this recovery, the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index (
NDX
) is up about 39%. Further, tech and AI-focused ETFs (
Exchange-Traded funds) like the Invesco QQQ Trust (
QQQ
) and Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (
BOTZ
) have also delivered substantial gains and witnessed
large inflows of cash.
The 2H 2023 Outlook
Thanks to the solid secular tailwinds, it is hard to find shorts among these large tech companies. Exposure to generative AI, a recovery in cloud computing, and a rebound in end-market demand could continue to fuel growth for these companies.
TipRanks’
Stock Comparison tool shows that Wall Street analysts are bullish about these tech stocks. All of these stocks command a Strong Buy consensus rating on TipRanks. However, analysts’ average 12-month price targets show limited upside potential.
Nvidia is the only big tech stock offering double-digit upside potential based on the average price target. Despite the stellar gains, the double-digit upside potential in NVDA stock shows the recognition of NVDA’s leadership in the AI space.
Besides for NVDA, shares of Amazon could exceed analysts’ average price target, reflecting reacceleration in AWS’ growth rate, AI-led tailwinds (AWS’ Generative AI offerings), and cost-saving measures.
Besides for these mega-cap stocks, the
Top Wall Street analysts are also bullish about Advanced Micro Devices (
NASDAQ:AMD
), CrowdStrike (
NASDAQ:CRWD
), ACM Research (
NASDAQ:ACMR
), Axon Enterprise (
NASDAQ:AXON
), and EngageSmart (
NYSE:ESMT
).
These tech stocks offer decent upside potential over the next 12 months based on analysts’ price targets.
Bottom Line
Despite macro uncertainty, the recent rally in technology stocks shows investors’ optimism in the sector. Further, analysts’ Strong Buy consensus rating on these stocks also substantiates the bullish view. Moreover, the expected increase in IT spending by enterprises on cloud and AI applications bodes well for growth.
Disclosure
Google has accused India's antitrust body of ordering changes to its business model "only to protect" rival Amazon, which complained about its struggles to develop a modified version of the Android system due to Google's restrictions, legal papers show.
(RTTNews) - Online retail giant Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) said Thursday that its Prime Day deals, where prime members across the globe will have 48 hours of exclusive access to shop millions of deals, will start on July 11.
Software Giant Oracle (
NYSE:ORCL
) stock has caught investors’ attention in 2023. It has easily outperformed its large-cap peer group,
gaining almost 40% year-to-date. Not just that, but the stock reached its all-time high of around $127 after delivering an outstanding Q4 beat in June. Well, now the big question is, is it too late to buy the stock? The answer is indeed surprising -- no, it's likely not too late!
I believe Oracle stock has a long runway for growth based on robust high-digit AI growth opportunities and Oracle’s clear edge versus its peers as it continues to invest and scale its AI and cloud capabilities.
Solid Cloud Momentum Led to Upbeat Q3 Results
On June 12, Oracle delivered outstanding
Q4 and Fiscal 2023 results. Q4 revenues jumped 17% year-over-year to $13.8 billion, beating Wall Street’s expectations by about $100 million.
Adjusted earnings of $1.67 per share also surpassed consensus estimates of $1.58.
The highlight of the quarter was some very impressive Cloud numbers. Organic Cloud revenues jumped 33% year-over-year in constant currency, while Cloud Infrastructure (IAAS) growth came at 77% year-over-year, driven by AI momentum. Operating margins improved, too, expanding by 200 basis points sequentially to 44%.
A free cash flow margin of 27% was the cherry on the cake. The reduced capital expenditures reassured investors of the sturdiness of its free cash flows, which continue to grow at a rapid pace (68%). It's no wonder then that the stock received upward price target revision from several Wall Street analysts and rating upgrades too.
On top of that, the company gave out a positive outlook, putting investors’ concerns to rest over increasing capital expenditures, a possible margin compression, and weakness in its core businesses.
For the upcoming first quarter, the company expects total revenues to grow at 8%-10% year-over-year, driven by impressive growth in IAAS. Notably, capital expenditure expectations have flattened for Fiscal 2024 after nearly doubling year-over-year in Fiscal 2023. As a result, the company's free cash flow margin should remain high.
Long-Term Catalysts: Cloud Business at an Inflection Point, Aided by AI
The robust Cloud business momentum that Oracle witnessed is not a one-off event. The AI boom story is here to stay. During the earnings call, management laid out its expectation for 30% Cloud business organic growth during Fiscal 2024.
The company is bullish on the AI space and looking to scale up its AI investments in a big way. Oracle is spending massively on AI technology, creating efficient networks and databases, buying high-end graphics processing units GPUs and chips from Nvidia (
NASDAQ:NVDA
), and entering into multiple partnerships. Recently, to add generative AI features across its software portfolio, it collaborated with an AI start-up company named Cohere.
Despite the fact that Oracle jumped later than its peers into the AI bandwagon, it continues to attract both new and old customers at a fast pace. What is giving Oracle an edge over its rivals like Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN)
and Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
) is its differentiated AI services that include payments based on customer usage.
The resulting cost savings have made it a preferred choice for its clients. Further, it has made several performance upgrades that have made its services more economical and faster for its customers when compared to its peers.
Digging deeper, Oracle reported impressive growth in its Cloud business, whereas Amazon Web services reported a much lower growth rate at around 11%. This implies that Oracle could be gaining market share from Amazon at a rapid pace.
Is ORCL Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
As per TipRanks, analysts are cautiously optimistic about Oracle stock, giving it a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 13 Buys and 12 Holds.
Oracle stock’s average price forecast of $129.37 implies 11.6% upside potential.
ORCL's Valuation is Reasonable
In terms of the stock's valuation, Oracle is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 21.1x, reflecting a 9.8% discount to its peer-group median of 23.8x. For the sake of comparison, its biggest competitor Amazon is currently trading at a much higher P/E ratio of 83.3x. Given the strong fundamentals and earnings growth, I believe that Oracle stock is fairly valued at current levels.
Takeaway: Should You Consider ORCL Stock?
The AI industry is still in its nascent stage. The supernormal growth in the AI space will ultimately normalize. However, that stage will come after a few years. In the meantime, Oracle will continue to gain market share based on its superior AI services driven by innovations and investments.
What’s even more enticing is that its continuing innovations make its software services more cost-effective for its clients. Therefore, I will consider buying the stock with a long-term view.
Disclosure
The electric vehicle heavyweight champion of the world, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), has several contenders looking to take its belt. Is Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) a serious contender, or simply Glass Joe from Punch-Out!!? Watch the below video for detailed stock analysis on both
Not many companies pay monthly dividends; even fewer of them are REITs. Stag Industrial (
NYSE:STAG
) is one such REIT that has already established a prolonged track record of reliable monthly payouts. The stock is currently yielding 4.2%, and while shares may trade at a relatively premium valuation, this serves as a testament to its soundness in a tough real estate market during the current rising-rates environment.
In fact, while the real estate sector suffered during the past year, with
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (
NYSEARCA:VNQ)
down 9% year-over-year,
shares of STAG rose by 16% over the same period - a massive outperformance.
In my view, investors are likely to keep appreciating STAG due to its quality property portfolio and the attractiveness of its monthly dividend. At the same time, however, the stock may be only fitting for conservative, income-oriented portfolios, as STAG's premium valuation could limit investors' total returns. Accordingly, I am neutral on the stock.
Quality Portfolio Drives Robust Results
STAG Industrial possesses a high-quality portfolio of 561 industrial properties in 41 states with roughly 111.6 million rentable square feet. Its portfolio has managed to perform resiliently since STAG's IPO in 2011, back when the company owned just 93 properties. This has been the basis of the company's ability to consistently pay and increase its monthly dividend during this period. But before we talk about the dividend, let's examine what makes STAG's property portfolio unique.
For starters, industrial properties (e.g., warehouse/distribution buildings) typically require fewer capital expenditures than other commercial property types, while single-tenant properties (which is STAG’s focus) typically require fewer expenditures for leasing, operating, and capital costs per property than multi-tenant properties.
Further, STAG's portfolio spans 60+ markets with no market exposure being more than 8% of the company's ABR (annualized base rent), its tenant base operates in 45+ different industries, and no tenant makes more than 3% of its ABR.
Hence, the portfolio is very diversified, minimizing the negative effect a particular industry that is struggling could have on its aggregate performance. Its tenants are of high quality, too, and include multinational behemoths with very healthy financials. Its largest tenant is Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
), at 2.8% of ABR.
Importantly, STAG's management has not only managed to grow and diversify the portfolio over the years but has also made sure that acquisitions have been accretive on a per-share basis. That's the most important fact for any investor. Specifically, STAG's FFO/share (FFO refers to funds from operations, a cash-flow metric used by REITs) has grown from $1.44 in 2013 to $2.21 last year, implying a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% over the past decade. This is not a bad result, given the REIT's consistency.
Despite rising interest rates, STAG's favorable performance has also been sustained going into Fiscal 2023. For Q1 2023, STAG's net operating income grew by 7.8%, while core FFO/share grew by 3.8% to $0.55. Management feels optimistic about the REIT's performance throughout the rest of the year too, as evidenced by its full-year outlook. For FY2023, management expects core FFO/share to land between $2.22 and $2.26, the midpoint of which implies year-over-year growth of 1.3%.
It may sound like an underwhelming increase, but given that most REITs are going to experience declining FFOs this year due to higher interest expenses, STAG's expectation for further growth is commendable, highlighting the strength of its portfolio.
Is STAG Worth Buying for Its 4.2%-Yielding Dividend?
STAG Industrial has built an impressive track record of
dividend growth, with the company boasting 12 years of consecutive annual dividend increases. Admittedly, STAG's dividend increases have been somewhat soft over the years. The dividend has usually grown by fractions each year, with the company’s five-year dividend-per-share CAGR standing at an uninspiring 0.69%.
The company's conservative management approach is a key factor contributing to the relatively modest dividend growth rate. STAG Industrial strategically enters into multi-year leases for its industrial properties, prioritizing the stability of cash flows over aggressive rent growth potential. This prudent strategy is reflected in the company's weighted average lease term of 4.7 years. While this approach limits the frequency of rent hikes, it provides enhanced visibility into cash-flow generation.
Nevertheless, I find the 4.2% yielding dividend to be highly reliable, with the midpoint of management's guidance implying a forward payout ratio of about 65%. Investors who seek stronger dividend growth prospects may be disappointed by STAG's conservative approach, but those who seek a relatively notable yield that is paid on a monthly basis and is very well covered are likely to very much appreciate STAG.
Is STAG Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, STAG Industrial has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on three Buys assigned in the past three months. At $40.00, the average
STAG Industrial stock price target implies 9.3% upside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell STAG stock, the most accurate analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is
Michael Carroll from RBC Capital, with an average return of 11.99% per rating and a 74% success rate.
The Takeaway
Overall, I believe that STAG Industrial features a quality property portfolio and an attractive monthly dividend. The company's robust performance in a challenging real estate market demonstrates its resilience.
That said, it's worth noting that the midpoint of management's guidance implies shares are trading at a price/FFO multiple of about 16, which is a premium multiple. Not only is it notably higher than the 13x median of its industry peers, but it's also inherently rich, given the company's slower-than-average dividend-growth prospects.
This is the result of investors willing to pay a premium for the reliable 4.2% yield and the attractiveness of the frequency of STAG's monthly payouts. Nevertheless, the premium valuation might constrain the potential total returns for investors in the future, making STAG a compelling choice primarily for conservative investors seeking stable income-oriented opportunities.
Disclosure
The NASDAQ 100 After Hours Indicator is down -6.29 to 15,197.49. The total After hours volume is currently 84,036,645 shares traded.The following are the most active stocks for the after hours session: Fortrea Holdings Inc. (FTRE) is unchanged at $37.00, with 9,306,639 shares tr
Is it a good time to consider investing in Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
)? The answer is -- it's complicated. Today, we're discussing one green flag but also one bright red flag for Amazon stock, which I'm neutral on for the time being.
Amazon is, by far, the most famous e-commerce platform in the U.S. The company also provides cloud-computing services through AWS (Amazon Web Services). It's a gigantic company, and short-selling AMZN stock would probably be irrational and dangerous.
Plus, there's an upcoming event that might tempt you to consider backing up the truck to load up on Amazon stock right now. However, there's a threat to Amazon's e-commerce business, and you'll be surprised to discover where that threat is coming from. So, be sure to get the full story before putting all of your chips on Amazon stock.
Why One Analyst Thinks Amazon Stock is a "Prime" Pick
Later, we'll take a look at how Wall Street's analysts generally feel about Amazon; by and large, they're quite positive. A typical bullish rating came from DBS Bank analysts, who initiated their coverage of AMZN stock with a Buy rating and a $150 price target. Among other considerations, the DBS Bank analysts cited growth in the membership base of Amazon's Prime subscription service. They also stated that Amazon maintains a 39% share of the U.S. e-commerce market.
Indeed, Amazon is so dominant in that market that the company's annual Prime Day event is akin to football's Super Bowl. Prime Day for 2023 is coming up soon, on July 11 and July 12, and surely it will feature plenty of sales and bargains for eager online shoppers.
The customers won't be the only beneficiaries, though. JPMorgan Chase (
NYSE:JPM
) analyst Doug Anmuth expects Amazon to generate $7 billion in revenue from the Prime Day event, representing a 12% year-over-year increase if that actually happens. I feel that Anmuth's prediction is reasonable, as inflation is starting to cool down and unemployment remains fairly low, so people should have disposable income to spend this year. In any case, Anmuth reiterated his Overweight rating on AMZN stock while publishing a price target of $145 on the shares.
Microsoft's New AI Feature Could Pose a Problem for Amazon
I just revealed a green flag for Amazon stock, but to be fair and balanced, I feel it's important to point out a red flag, as well. I'm not referring to Amazon's lofty valuation (GAAP trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 309.59x versus the sector median P/E ratio of 16.71x), though value-focused investors could certainly point this out. Nor am I referring to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC)'s plans to sue Amazon over the company's alleged favoritism toward certain online merchants.
Rather, I'm alluding to a threat from Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
). No, Microsoft isn't starting up an e-commerce marketplace to compete directly against Amazon (at least, not as far as I know). However, Microsoft is reportedly adding a generative-
AI-based shopping assistant called Buying Guide to its Bing search engine and its Edge internet browser.
Many people simply go to Amazon's website or app to start shopping online, but Microsoft's Buying Guide could change that habit. It offers price-comparison capabilities and can point potential buyers to product reviews, as well as provide intelligent suggestions about what to buy next. In other words, Buying Guide uses generative AI to perform some of the functions that Amazon does.
If this new feature from Microsoft diverts shoppers away from Amazon, naturally, this would have a negative impact on Amazon's revenue. So far, though, this consideration hasn't prevented analysts from giving AMZN stock favorable ratings. With that in mind, let's see how analysts generally rate Amazon shares.
Is AMZN Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, AMZN stock comes in as a Strong Buy based on 37 Buys and one Hold rating. The average
Amazon stock price target is $141.09, implying 8.2% upside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell AMZN stock, the most accurate analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is
Michael Graham of Canaccord Genuity, with an average return of 30.91% per rating and an 82% success rate. Click on the image below to learn more.
Conclusion: Should You Consider Amazon Stock?
It's not a terrible idea to think about owning a few shares of Amazon prior to Prime Day. After all, Amazon is sure to rake in lots of revenue due to this famous event. Yet, there's no need to over-leverage yourself on AMZN stock today, as Microsoft's Buying Guide could pose a serious threat to Amazon's dominance in U.S. e-commerce.
Disclosure
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What happened
The Fourth of July is over, but the fireworks continued this morning for shares of Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN). As of 1:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, its stock is up 2.5%, retreating from its earlier rise of 7.6%.
Wednesday, July 5, 2023The Zacks Research Daily presents the best research output of our analyst team. Today's Research Daily features new research reports on 16 major stocks, including Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), NVIDIA Corporation
Wall Street's main indexes fell on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, while weak U.S. and China economic data as well as rising Sino-U.S. tensions dented investor sentiment.
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