Nasdaq AMZN Amazon

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One of the pandemic’s most noticeable effects is in how it has transformed the way people shop. The move from brick & mortar to online shopping is one which was at play before Covid-19 hit. However, J.P. Morgan’s Doug Anmuth reckons the pandemic “pulled forward ~3 years of e-commerce growth.”

Going by US Department of Commerce data, US e-commerce spend increased year-over-year by 31.8% in 2020 to reach 19% of adjusted retail sales (sans food services, automobile & other motor vehicle dealers, and gas stations). This is far above the 6.3% the segment commanded out of total adjusted retail sales back in 2010. Giving credence to Anmuth’s belief that Covid has accelerated this transformation are the “~358bps of penetration” added in 2020, which amount to the largest ever increase in a single year. 2020 also marked the 11th consecutive year of double-digit e-comm growth. For context, during the same period, annual brick & mortar sales growth was in the 2-4% range.

By 2025, Anmuth thinks ecommerce will account for 30% of all retail sales and could eventually reach 40-50%.

And the company that has benefited the most from this shift in consumers’ behavior and looks exceptionally well-placed to continue to do so is ecommerce giant Amazon (AMZN). Not only that, as the e-comm pie expanded, Amazon “did not lose positioning,” and Anmuth thinks the anticipated growth means Amazon will soon be crowned the US retail king.

“Amazon’s share of US e-commerce increased to 39% in 2020 and AMZN should surpass Walmart as the largest US retailer in 2022,” the 5-star analyst said. “AMZN’s US GMV reached an estimated $316B in 2020 (+45% Y/Y ex-Whole Foods), accelerating from +22% in 2019, driving 39% share of US e-commerce and almost 8% of total adj. retail sales.”

It is the outsized growth in large and “under-penetrated” categories such as CPG/Grocery & Apparel, the 200 million+ subscribers of the Prime “flywheel,” and the “strong” 3P seller growth which Anmuth credits for Amazon’s “accelerated top-line growth.”

“Going forward,” the analyst summed up, “We expect the return of P1D shipping in the US & AMZN’s 50% Y/Y square footage expansion in 2020 to both drive & support future growth.”

As such, Amazon remains Anmuth’s “top pick” with an Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating and $4,600 price target. The implication for investors? Upside of 36%. (To watch Anmuth’s track record, click here)

While Anmuth is effusive in his praise, his take is by no means unique. All 31 recent analyst reviews are to Buy, naturally resulting in a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target currently stands at $4,295.17, suggesting one-year gains of ~26%. (See Amazon stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are their own.)

Retail giant Walmart (NYSE: WMT) has held the top spot in revenue generation among publicly traded companies for about 20 years now (it dethroned ExxonMobil in 2001). Through its discount sales business model and relentless growth in stores across the U.S. and around the world (r

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If the past year has taught us one thing, it's that digital retail is just getting started. Global e-commerce sales topped $4.29 trillion in 2020, up 27.6% year over year, and more than double the $2 trillion in online sales in 2016. That could be just the beginning. Other estima

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Amazon (AMZN) is rolling out its cashier-less checkout technology called "Just Walk Out" to more stores. The first full-size Amazon Fresh grocery store with this technology is scheduled to open in Bellevue, Washington, on June 17.

The store will offer two checkout options. Customers can choose the traditional checkout method, where they will be served by Amazon cashiers and have the option to pay with cash or cards. Alternatively, customers can use the Just Walk Out option, where they will be able to skip the checkout line and save time. 

At the store’s entry gate, customers will be prompted to choose their preferred checkout option. Those who choose the Just Walk Out option will need to complete one of three tasks before entering the store. Scan their palm using Amazon One, scan the QR code in their Amazon app, or insert a payment card linked to their Amazon account. Once done, the Just Walk Out gate will open to let the customer in.

“Customers have enjoyed the effortless shopping experience enabled by our Just Walk Out technology…The feedback has been fantastic, with customers noting that skipping the checkout allows them to save time and reduce contact in stores,” commented Dilip Kumar, Amazon’s VP of Physical Retail and Technology. 

Amazon has rolled out the cashier-less checkout technology to several Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh-branded grocery stores in the U.S. and U.K. It also offers the technology to third-party retailers. (See Amazon stock analysis on TipRanks)

Yesterday, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $4,600 on Amazon stock. The analyst’s price target implies 35.97% upside potential.

Anmuth believes that Amazon is on track to overtake Walmart (WMT) as the largest retailer in the U.S. in 2022. The analyst also expects retail spending to continue to shift online, with e-commerce retail reaching 30% in 2025 and 50% over time.

Consensus among analysts is a Strong Buy based on 31 Buys. The Amazon average analyst price target of $4,295.17 implies 26.96% upside potential to current levels.

AMZN scores a “Perfect 10” on TipRanks’ Smart Score rating system, indicating that the stock has strong potential to outperform market expectations.

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