Nasdaq TSLA Tesla
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Which EV Stocks Do Analysts Prefer Amid the Recent Dip?
Despite solid demand and regulatory support, shares of the EV (Electric Vehicle) makers are on a free fall. For instance, shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Nio (NYSE: NIO), and Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) are down about 39%, 50%, and 57%, respectively, year-to-date.
Production challenges stemming from supply shortages as well as higher raw material and battery costs are taking a toll on the EV makers and their stock prices.
It's worth mentioning that Tesla, which was managing the supply chain volatility and raw material cost headwinds well, has warned that its Q2 performance could take a hit due to supply issues.
Bloomberg, citing Tesla's internal email, reported that Elon Musk has signaled that supply and production headwinds at its China facility negatively impacted its Q2 performance.
Following the update, Tesla stock closed 7.1% lower on Monday. Meanwhile, shares of Nio and Lucid dropped 11.9% and 9.5%.
Now What?While supply and production challenges could continue to hurt the operations of EV makers, higher average selling prices and cost optimization could help counter the higher raw material costs.
During the last reported quarter, Lucid's CEO, Peter Rawlinson, stated that the company is increasing the prices of its vehicles to combat increased costs. Meanwhile, the company reiterated its production forecast (12,000-14,000 vehicles) for 2022. However, it warned that extended supply disruptions and a COVID-led factory shutdown in China could impact its production guidance.
Meanwhile, Tesla's increased deliveries and selling prices have led to higher automotive margins. However, production issues can hurt its operations.
As for Nio, its focus on cost optimization and the launch of a new hybrid battery is supporting its margins. Further, the company could raise prices to confront higher costs.
Bottom LineProduction and supply issues could hurt these EV makers' near-term prospects and make it challenging to meet the high demand. However, the long-term fundamentals remain intact, underpinned by secular industry trends, a strong demand trajectory, and innovation.
While EV stocks have lost significant value amid the pandemic, TipRanks' Stock Comparison tool indicates that the Street prefers Nio to outperform peers. Further, NIO stock scores higher on TipRanks' quantitative Smart Score tool.
Nio's new battery, expected price increase, new model launches, and easing regulatory pressure bode well for future growth.
Nio stock has 14 unanimous Buy recommendations for a Strong Buy consensus rating. Moreover, its average price target of $39.26 implies 145.5% upside potential. Also, NIO stock has a maximum Smart Score of 10 out of 10.
Meanwhile, analysts are cautiously optimistic about TSLA and LCID. Further, TSLA stock has an Underperform Smart Score of 3 out of 10, while LCID has a Neutral Smart Score of 6 out of 10.
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Tesla Stock: Undervalued and Heading to $1,100, Says RBC
Sentiment is low, everyone is bearish, and the stock market appears to be sinking to the bottom. However, looking at the case for Tesla (TSLA), with shares down ~38% year-to-date, RBC analyst Joseph Spak believes that now is the time to buy the dip.
"Near-term set-up seems favorable... With investors primed for lower deliveries, we believe 2Q22 margins can surprise to upside," Spak opined.
The analyst expects Q2 deliveries will drop to 249,000 (compared to Q1’s 310,000), due to the pricing actions Tesla has taken a while ago but which it hasn’t been able to capitalize on as it has worked through the backlog. However, Spak expects the ASP (average selling price) for a vehicle to increase sequentially by around 3% (~$52,000 in the prior quarter to $53,400 this quarter).
Looking ahead to Q3, the analyst is calling for 396,000 deliveries - above Street expectations of 378,000. And as Shanghai gets back on track, Berlin and Texas “ramp” and pricing gains continue, Spak expects to see 2H22 auto gross margins above 30%.
The buoyant take doesn’t stop there. Beyond 2022, Spak is “increasingly favorable on Tesla’s industry positioning.”
The EV story is still in its early days and while Tesla is no longer benefiting from an “oligopoly-like positioning,” and is confronted with growing competition, the analyst is not overly concerned with losing market share. That is because as the decade progresses and EVs make further inroads, Spak thinks EVs will become increasingly reliant on the supply chain, and here Tesla has a big advantage.
“TSLA's early focus on vertical integration (not just batteries/raw materials but also motors, semis, software) is likely to pay off especially as industry supply of critical materials may become an issue in 2027/28 and TSLA may be able to control more of their own destiny,” the RBC analyst summed up.
As a result, Spak thinks it’s time for an upgrade; the analyst upped his rating on TSLA from Sector Perform (i.e. Neutral) to Outperform (i.e. Buy). According to Spak, the EV giant is worth ~68% more than it’s currently selling for, and should hit $1,100 within the next 12 months. (To watch Spak’s track record, click here)
And what about the rest of the Street? Tesla ratings are varied, with the Moderate Buy consensus view based on 17 Buys, 8 Holds and 6 Sells. The forecast calls for 12-month gains of 43%, considering the average price target clocks in at $936.53. (See Tesla stock forecast on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.