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Tesla Investors Bearish Due to Three New Catalysts

5 years 4 months ago

Tesla (TSLA) stock appears to be losing momentum, and losing it fast. Since trading at an all-time high of $900 per share earlier this year, TSLA stock has lost approximately one-third of its value in short order.

Multiple catalysts have contributed to this decline. Three of the most recent catalysts of note for investors are the cancellation of Plaid Plus, the departures of several top executives, and a threat from Anonymous. (See Tesla stock analysis on TipRanks)

Plaid+ Cancellation

One of the most exciting product reveals in Tesla’s recent history has been the company’s Plaid Plus vehicle. The purported specs on this vehicle are incredible. The word "purported" is essential, because this car has been nixed about as quickly as it was announced, by CEO Elon Musk, via a recent tweet. In the tweet, Musk claimed the upgraded car had been cancelled because the basic "Plaid is just so good."

Tesla bulls note that Tesla appears to be consolidating its focus right now, because it had been doing too many things at once. By releasing one vehicle instead of the expected two, Tesla can potentially capture more of the high-end performance EV market than if it had simply released one vehicle without touting a second one.

While that may be true, this abrupt tweet looks like an amateur hour move. Investors may expect more from one of the wealthiest and most influential individuals in the U.S.

Additionally, Plaid Plus featured new 4680 battery cells which were supposed to be the future of the company’s high-performance line-up, as well as its Semi trucks. Some investors are questioning whether these batteries are even real or available right now (or any time soon). Many investors remember the hot water QuantumScape (QS) had gotten itself in with short-sellers over its purported solid-state battery technology.

Executive Departures

Tesla has seen a series of executive departures lately.

Of key concern, Tesla’s long-time trucking automotive President Jerome Guillen quit on June 3. He was in charge of bringing the Tesla Semi to production - the very same vehicle that was supposed to be powered by the 4680 battery. As one of the longest-tenured executives at Tesla, Mr. Guillen was considered one of the top four executives in the company.

Additionally, it was reported on Monday that RJ Johnson, Tesla’s head of energy operations, has left the company. There had been rumors in the past about this move, but his departure has only recently been reported, creating concern that the company may be attempting to keep these executive departures hush hush.

Furthermore, Tesla has lost another top manager for the company’s new Berlin plant, currently under construction. On June 5, it was reported Mr. Jost had left the automaker last month. Why he left is uncertain, but his departure adds to the appearance of a worrisome pattern.

Anonymous to Musk: Expect Us

A chilling video published by what claimed to be the popular Anonymous movement highlighted some of the catalysts pointed out in this article. However, the video focuses more on the feelings of some retail investors that Elon Musk disregards those who have put their faith in him.

While it appears this video was posted by a group of doppelgangers, it does seem that Elon Musk is raising the ire of a specific niche of investors via his tweets on cryptocurrencies and other topics. Elon Musk’s tweets move markets, and it appears that Anonymous, or a group that really looks like Anonymous, does not appreciate his tweets. How this plays out will be interesting to watch.

What Analysts Are Saying About TSLA Stock

According to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, TSLA stock comes in as a Hold. Out of 23 analyst ratings, there are 10 Buy recommendations, 7 Hold recommendations, and 6 Sell recommendations.

As for price targets, the average analyst Tesla price target is $640.29. Analyst price targets range from a low of $67.00 per share to a high of $1,080.00 per share.

Bottom Line

There is reason to be downright bearish on Tesla stock right now. Tesla may be a bubble in the technology space.

Tesla bulls may be able to find solace in what appear to be decent growth numbers today. But as the sector matures, growth and artificially-high margins could come down considerably.

Accordingly, right now, investors may want to pay more attention to the $67 price target than the $1,080 price target. Indeed, there’s a reason why analysts diverge so vigorously on TSLA stock. For the reasons explained above, it appears the $67 price target is based in a much more rooted reality than the $1,080 price target at the present moment.

Disclosure: Chris MacDonald held no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article at the time of publication.

Disclaimer: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities.

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EV Investors Driven Toward Xpeng’s Growth Potential

5 years 4 months ago

Chinese EV player Xpeng (XPEV) has been a long-time EV player in China, but is a relatively recent addition to the NYSE. The company’s listing in 2020 ignited a ton of anticipation.

Indeed, this EV player has seen its stock price go on quite the ride since being publicly listed. Since the company’s $15 IPO as an ADR (American Depository Receipt) on the NASDAQ in August 2020, shares took off to nearly $75 per share late last year. (See Xpeng stock analysis on TipRanks)

However, since then, this 5-bagger has turned into a decliner of the slow-and-steady variety. Today, growth investors can pick up shares of this EV maker for around $37 per share, at the time of writing.

Let’s dive into why Xpeng could be a great growth-at-a-reasonable-price play for long-term investors at these levels.

An EV for the Middle Class

Xpeng’s business model is extremely intriguing. The company’s three models include its SUV (the G3 model), a sedan (the P7 model), and a newly-released SUV model (G3).

Xpeng’s target market centers on the Chinese middle class. The company’s goal is to grab market share in a fast-growing segment of the population that simply can’t afford, or don’t want to stretch their budgets, to buy a Nio (NIO) or Tesla (TSLA) vehicle.

Given the absolutely extraordinary rise of China’s middle class, and a boom in consumer spending as the pandemic ends, Xpeng is well positioned to take advantage of improved demand over the medium-term. Indeed, in comparison to its peers, Xpeng’s positioning seems superior right now.

Furthermore, the company’s lidar-equipped smart EVs are becoming a big hit among millennial buyers. These technologically-advanced vehicles, in combination with a strong online sales presence, have become noticed among investors. Indeed, Xpeng is doing its part to transform the EV buying experience in small, incremental ways.

These small innovations could pay big dividends for investors long-term.

Growth Is the Name of the Game for Investors in XPEV Stock

Xpeng’s growth trajectory is what entices most investors to consider this EV option.

Indeed, the Chinese market continues to be the growth market to which investors want more access. That's for good reason.

Recent data shows that China currently accounts for roughly half of the global EV market. As a high-growth market with some serious political backing, China has increasingly appealed to growth investors looking for outsized EV growth.

Indeed, Xpeng’s positioning as a company targeting China’s growing middle class adds to the growth expectations for this stock. The company delivered roughly 27,000 cars in 2020, so it’s still small relative to the more than 2.5 million EV sales in China in 2019. However, given this relatively low base, investors can expect sky-high CAGR on the horizon for Xpeng over the long run.

This is a company with an absolutely massive runway that investors would be remiss to ignore.

Risks Do Exist, So Trade Carefully

All that said, XPEV certainly isn’t without risk today. Like other large EV players, Xpeng is being hampered by a series of headwinds.

Among the most pertinent is a global semiconductor chip shortage that investors have been contending with since the beginning of the year. Recent reports indicate this shortage could rage on for a couple years. Such a situation is not friendly to growth-heavy stocks like XPEV.

Accordingly, Xpeng has factored in the global chip shortage into its recent production guidance. Whether this shortage further affects production estimates remains to be seen. However, investors are starting to price this risk in.

Additionally, concerns domestically around the deteriorating U.S.-China diplomatic relationship have soured U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. As an ADR on the NASDAQ, Xpeng stock has been hit by delisting threats. While likely a small probability, it’s an issue that has kept many investors out of China altogether of late.

What Analysts Are Saying About XPEV Stock

According to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, XPEV stock comes in as a Strong Buy. Out of 7 analyst ratings, there are 7 Buy recommendations.

As for price targets, the average analyst price target is $47.66. Analyst price targets range from a low of $34.00 per share to a high of $57.00 per share.

Bottom Line

Xpeng’s growth potential provides a significant margin of safety for long-term growth investors at these levels. This stock certainly isn’t without risk. However, many investors believe the risk-reward with this stock is enticing at around $37 per share.

When growth stocks become fashionable once again, Chinese stocks could once again become the centerpiece of discussion. Growth in China, and particularly in China’s EV market, is likely to be world-class. Xpeng investors hope the market will see the value in this growth stock soon.

Disclosure: Chris MacDonald held no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article at the time of publication.

Disclaimer: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities.

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