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Elon Musk spent nearly $500 million on the midterms. It bought him almost nothing
Elon Musk put about $474 million into the 2026 midterms, according to a New York Times tally. (That amount only tracks through October 14, when Federal Election Commission [FEC] and IRS filings stopped; the trillionaire may have given far more in dark money.) For comparison, the world’s richest man spent an estimated $250 million to get Donald Trump elected in 2024.
But this time, he has little to show for his efforts. Democrats wrested control of both the House of Representatives and Senate from Republicans Tuesday night. A Forbes analysis shows that 44 of Musk’s 106 candidates lost, including in the races that mattered most to him: Ken Paxton’s bid for a Texas Senate seat, Greg Abbott’s bid to remain Texas governor, and Vivek Ramaswamy’s bid for governor of Ohio. Eighteen Musk-backed candidates won, but all were in seats Republicans were expected to win anyway. Another 44 races remained uncalled Wednesday.
Musk’s money was funneled to Republican House and Senate candidates through his own super PAC, America PAC (about $216 million), the Senate Leadership Fund ($168 million), and the Congressional Leadership Fund for House races ($30 million).
The largest share of Musk’s midterm spending ($212 million) went toward helping Ken Paxton beat James Talarico for the Texas Senate seat formerly held by John Cornyn. Talarico walloped Paxton Tuesday night, winning by 12 points in the traditionally red state. In his victory speech, Talarico seemed to call out Musk, saying he had sent “a message to every billionaire megadonor, every trillionaire megadonor.”
Outside Texas, America PAC spent $22.7 million in six battleground states through October 20, filings show, including $8.9 million in Ohio and $7.2 million in Michigan. Democrat Sherrod Brown won the Senate seat in Ohio, while Abdul El-Sayed won the Senate seat in Michigan.
Congressional purse stringsMusk’s America PAC said its “only priority is ensuring Republicans keep full control of Washington.” His businesses rely heavily on federal money: SpaceX booked $6.78 billion in federal contracts through October 1, compared with just $3.8 billion in all of 2024, per data from federal spending tracker FedScout. In May, the U.S. Space Force awarded it $4.16 billion for Golden Dome tracking satellites. The party that controls Congress controls the government’s purse strings. Musk’s gravy train may slow down or stop.
Republicans believed Democrats would have to take Texas to seize control of Congress.
In January, Democrats will chair the committees that fund and oversee SpaceX’s biggest customers. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), whom America PAC backed, lost her seat—and with it, the Appropriations Committee chairmanship, which shapes NASA and Pentagon budgets.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has said he would investigate Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) if Democrats won. The Senate also confirms Federal Communications Commission (FCC) members, who control Starlink’s spectrum, and funds the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which licenses SpaceX launches. The new Congress can’t cancel contracts; the Pentagon and NASA award them.
With Paxton’s defeat, Musk also lost a reliable vote in the Senate—and gained a Texas senator in Talarico who identified him during the campaign as an out-of-touch trillionaire who personifies some of the country’s biggest problems.
InvestigationsAs Democrats clinched the House on Tuesday night, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), who will chair the House Oversight Committee, posted two words on X: “LAWYER UP.” The warning was aimed mainly at the Trump administration and family, but Garcia’s office said he would also take on “corporate corruption,” and Musk may be at the top of that list. Democrats will run committees with subpoena power, allowing them to compel documents and testimony. In 2025, House Republicans blocked a Democratic motion to subpoena Musk. In January, Democrats will hold the gavels.
They’ve already named their targets. Committees are weighing probes of Musk’s time running DOGE, SpaceX’s and Tesla’s federal contracts, and his alleged role in restricting SpaceX’s Starshield satellite service to Ukraine’s military, Politico reports. (Musk says the U.S. military, not SpaceX, decides any limits on Starshield.)
Wall Street investors reacted quickly to Tuesday night’s election results. SpaceX shares fell 3.8% and Tesla dropped 3.5% in premarket trading on Wednesday. Overnight, Musk posted on X: “Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now.”
What Hinojosa’s win means in TexasDemocrat Gina Hinojosa’s surprise victory over Gov. Greg Abbott could put Musk’s plans to build data centers across Texas in jeopardy. Hinojosa has proposed a moratorium on new data center construction until lawmakers enact lasting safeguards. “Data centers are coming in and doing as they please—they are guzzling up all our water, guzzling up all our electricity—and the people have no say . . . that is the Wild West of data centers that Greg Abbott has created in Texas,” she said in July.
Hinojosa wants rules giving Texas residents more say over new developments, requiring companies to prove their projects won’t raise household water or electricity bills, and prohibiting nondisclosure agreements that keep communities in the dark during the permitting process. She also wants to eliminate the government subsidies that have helped make Texas so attractive to developers.
Musk has major operations and investments in the state, including Tesla’s headquarters and largest U.S. plant, SpaceX’s Starbase launch site, and the planned Terafab semiconductor and AI chip plant. Musk gave an estimated $5.5 million to Abbott’s campaign.
Abbott’s administration gave Musk’s companies some major benefits. The governor’s office pushed broadband rules that favored Starlink, which then won about $110 million in state grants, triggering an audit. Terafab won about $1.7 billion in school tax breaks, and SpaceX more than $54 million in state grants, according to a lawsuit Hinojosa filed during the campaign.
That suit won Hinojosa access to more than 1,000 pages of Abbott-Musk communications that Abbott had called too “intimate and embarrassing” to release. In one message, Musk asked whether Abbott would “have his back,” to which Abbott replied, “100%.”
When she takes office in January, Hinojosa will control future incentive deals. She’ll also appoint the Texas Parks commissioners who would vote on any sale of Boca Chica State Park, which Musk wants to buy to expand SpaceX’s Starbase rocket facility in South Texas.
What the losses cost MuskThe $224 million Musk spent and lost in Texas isn’t likely to hurt his wallet much. He’s worth about $902 billion today, so he lost roughly one-fortieth of 1% of his wealth.
But the loss of a friendly Congress—and the diminished political clout of Musk’s friend Trump—could cost much more. About one-fifth of SpaceX’s $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue came from federal agencies, its initial public offering (IPO) filing says. That’s roughly $3.7 billion a year, or $7.5 billion over two years at 2025 levels. The Democratic Congress could decide to slow-walk new contracts, like May’s $4.16 billion Golden Dome award.
Musk now pitches SpaceX as a supplier of AI computing. Deals renting its Colossus data centers to Anthropic and Google could bring in $26 billion a year. The changing political tide could make getting permits for new data centers more difficult. In August, even the Musk-friendly Abbott paused new data center connections to the Texas grid.
The election results could also shake investors’ confidence in Musk and the companies he leads. SpaceX’s IPO filing calls the company “highly dependent” on Musk. When investors buy SpaceX or Tesla stock, they’re not just looking at the companies’ financials; they’re also buying into the “story” of Musk, who has fashioned an image of an unpredictable engineering genius with massive wealth and powerful friends. But his political connections look considerably less secure after Tuesday night. That could make investors less inclined to believe Musk’s claims that SpaceX will put data centers in space and become the largest AI company in the world.
On Tuesday morning, Musk tweeted “Vote red today!” But by Wednesday morning, the tweet had quietly disappeared.