The stakes in Tuesday’s election — which party will control Congress — are crystal clear. But when that will be known is impossible to say.
The Associated Press will be calling races in all 435 House districts and the 35 Senate contests that are up for election this year.
Control of the House depends on which party reaches 218 seats. Currently, 219 members caucus with Republicans, just one more than the minimum needed for a majority when all seats are filled. There are two vacancies now.
The bar for the Senate is 51 seats for Democrats or 50 for Republicans, since Vice President JD Vance can cast a tiebreaking vote for his party. Republicans have a 53-47 edge in the Senate right now.
During the last midterm elections in 2022, the AP called control of the Senate four days after Election Day, while the House call was eight days after.
During the presidential cycle of 2024, there was a bigger gap between the two. Senate control was called the day after Election Day, with the House call coming eight days later.
Some states consistently take days to count all their ballots. California, the nation’s most populous, has seen thousands of mail ballots dropped off on Election Day. In 2022, half the state’s votes were counted after Election Day.
Other states like Alaska and Maine, which have key Senate races this year, use ranked choice voting.
A candidate can win with more than 50% of votes in the first round, but if no one reaches that threshold then the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the voter’s second choice. The process can significantly delay results.
The AP does not make projections and will only declare a winner when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap.
—Mike Catalini, Associated Press
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Election Day 2026 is here. By the end of today (Tuesday, November 3, 2026), the balance of power in Washington is almost certain to have shifted. But the big question is, by how much?
Voting in the 2026 midterm elections across the country is now underway, and most political analysts say it could be a blowout for the Democrats, with polls showing that voters are broadly concerned about the economy—especially inflationary pressures and rising gas prices.
What do the latest polls say?The latest CNN Poll of Polls shows that 52% of voters prefer Democrats for Congress, compared to 43% preferring Republicans. NBC puts it at 52% for Democrats and 44% for Republicans.
As Axios reports, election forecaster Nate Silver says the Democrats have a 95% probability of winning the House and an 80% probability of winning the Senate. More than just a “blue wave,” Silver says today’s election could be a “blue tsunami.”
What is the makeup of Congress right now?Currently, the 100 Senate seats are made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents (who caucus with the Dems).
The 435 House seats are made up of 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and 1 Independent (with two vacancies).
To flip both chambers, the Democrats need to achieve just 218 seats in the House and 51 in the Senate—something polls show is within reach.
However, historically, polling has underrepresented Republican support in some states. A lot of races will also ultimately hinge on voter turnout. That means nothing is certain until every last vote is counted.
How can I track the election results live?If you want to track the 2026 midterm results as they come in, you can do so online in several ways, including:
Polls begin to close at 6 p.m. ET tonight, so you can expect to see the first results shortly after.
However, if you do plan on watching all the results, you could be in for a late night. The final polls in the country—those in Alaska—don’t close until 1 a.m. ET.